投资者心悬中国股市

英国《金融时报》罗伯特•库克森 香港报道
中国股市的起伏多变是出了名的。但最近几天，这一点表现得尤为明显。在周二大跌4%后，在过去的3个交易日，上证指数已累积下跌近9%。全世界的投资者都把目光转向了中国股市。
此轮抛售发生之际，人们越来越担心中国通胀正失去控制，需要中国政府采取强硬手段加以应对。
马丁可利(Martin Currie)驻上海基金经理克里斯•拉弗尔(Chris Ruffle)表示：“市场之所以出现抛盘，关键原因在于事实证明，通胀——特别是食品通胀——比预期的更为猛烈。这些是中共高层真正担心的问题。”
上周发布的数据显示，中国10月份消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨4.4%，较上月3.6%的涨幅有所扩大，也是2年多以来的最高水平，远高于政府3%的目标。
尽管与上世纪八、九十年代两位数的通胀相比，当前水平还算温和，但食品价格却不成比例地飙升了10%，这对贫困家庭造成的冲击尤为猛烈。
目前的首要问题是，中共将采取哪些措施来抑制通胀，进而消除社会动荡的风险。中国政府反应的速度和力度，将对中国经济和股市产生重大影响。
北京专业研究机构龙洲经讯(Dragonomics)的葛艺豪(Arthur Kroeber)表示：“中国政府的当务之急，已从保增长转向了控制物价上涨。”
北京方面已开始收紧银根——去年，政府主导的放贷狂热是前所未有的，流入经济的新增贷款总额几乎翻了一番，增至9.6万亿元人民币（合1.4万亿美元）。上周，中国政府将商业银行的存款准备金率上调50个基点，10月，中国人民银行(PBoC)也宣布了两年多以来的首次加息。葛艺豪表示，这些举动仅仅是个开始。“要想控制住通胀，还需要更多的紧缩措施。”
但包括拉弗尔在内的许多分析师和投资者认为，上海股市最近的大跌是买入机会，而非长期熊市的开端。
的确，以历史标准来衡量，中国股票的估值水平并不高。根据彭博社(Bloomberg)的数据，上证综指本财年的预期市盈率不过16倍，较过去5年的平均水平低了20%。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师朱悦(Helen Zhu)表示：“估值仍远低于2007年的超高水平——当时，加息引发了更多的获利回吐。”
但在中国第二大证券交易所——深交所——上市的股票，价格要贵一些。主要由中小企业构成的深圳股市，预期市盈率为30倍，较其长期平均水平溢价28%。
富达国际基金(Fidelity International)的选股明星安东尼•波顿(Anthony Bolton)表示，他仍看好中国股票，并将中国誉为“未来十年的投资机遇所在”。
不过，他补充称，在香港等离岸交易所上市的中国企业的估值水平，普遍比沪深两市的企业更具吸引力。
当然，中国的股价与投资者心目中的企业基本面估值并没有太大关系，更多的是与投机以及金融体系中流动的资金量有关。
就目前而言，中国仍然存在大量所谓的“过剩流动性”，货币供应指标M2的增长速度仍快于总体经济增速。麦格理(Macquarie)的数据显示，2010年中国M2与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率将突破180%，高于2007年的152%（见图表）。

与此同时，有关未来数月乃至数年、人民币对美元将持续升值的预期，正推动“热钱”大量涌入中国资本市场。中国9月份的外汇储备增加了1000亿美元，创下有史以来最大单月增幅——而其中只有250亿美元来自贸易差额和外国直接投资。
随着美联储(Fed)出台第二轮定量宽松举措，向全球金融体系注入6000亿美元，加之美国利率仍接近于零，热钱涌入中国几乎没有终止的迹象。
分析师还认为，中国政府决心阻止房地产和大宗商品等对社会和谐至关重要的市场的价格过度上涨，可能会增强股市投机的吸引力。官方媒体报道，有关部门正考虑对粮食及其它大宗商品市场施行价格管控。这将对这些领域的企业构成严重冲击，在工资及其它成本都在持续上涨的当下，这些企业的收入将受到限制。
“瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的陈昌华(Vincent Chan)表示：“当通胀成为一个社会问题时，政府通常会采用某种形式的价格管控措施。”陈昌华表示，房地产、公用事业和石油产品精炼等领域最容易受到冲击。表现最好的企业将是那些固定成本高、定价能力强、负债率和政策风险低的企业。
市场参与者仍坚信，中国股市将能够安然度过此轮政府抑制通胀的举措。
这种观点的风险在于，通胀将比预期的更顽固和危险，促使中国政府出台大幅缩减银行放贷额度等大规模举措。
这种情况一旦发生，受冲击的将远远不止上海股市。
Investors buckle up for a turbulent ride in China
By Robert Cookson in Hong Kong
China’s equity markets are notoriously volatile. But in recent days they have been especially so. After tumbling 4 per cent on Tuesday, Shanghai stocks are now down almost 9 per cent in the past three trading sessions. Investors across the world are taking note.
The wave of selling comes amid growing fears that inflation is getting out of control in China and will require a sharp response from the government.
“The key concern, and the reason the market sold off, is that inflation – particularly food inflation – is proving stronger than expectations. This is something that really worries Communist politicians,” says Chris Ruffle, a fund manager at Martin Currie in Shanghai.
Data last week showed that consumer price inflation rose to 4.4 per cent in October from 3.6 per cent the month before – its highest level in more than two years and well above the government’s target of 3 per cent.
While those levels are mild compared with the double-digit price rises of the 1980s and 1990s, there has been a disproportionate 10 per cent surge in food prices, which is hitting poor households especially hard.
The big question now is what the Communist Party will do to contain inflation and thereby suppress the risk of social unrest. The speed and scope of Beijing’s response will have big implications for the Chinese economy and its equity market.
“The government’s top priority has now switched from guaranteeing growth to controlling rising prices,” says Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research boutique.
Beijing has already started tightening liquidity following last year’s un-precedented government- directed lending spree that saw total new loans in the economy nearly double to Rmb9,600bn ($1,400bn). Officials last week increased commercial bank reserve requirements by 50 basis points and in October the People’s Bank of China raised interest rates for the first time in more than two years. These moves are only the beginning, says Mr Kroeber. “Further tightening measures will be needed to keep inflation in check.”
Yet many analysts and investors – including Mr Ruffle of Martin Currie – reckon that Shanghai’s recent decline represents a buying opportunity rather than the start of a long-term bear market.
Indeed, equity valuations are not expensive by historical standards, with the Shanghai Composite trading at 16 times forecast earnings for the current financial year, according to Bloomberg data, or a 20 per cent discount to its average over the past five years.
“Valuations are still far from over-stretched levels seen in 2007 when rate hikes induced more profit taking,” says Helen Zhu of Goldman Sachs.
But shares listed in Shenzhen, China’s second stock exchange, are pricier. The Shenzhen market, which is made up of mostly middle- and small-caps, is trading at 30 times forecast earnings, a 28 per cent premium to its long-term average.
Anthony Bolton, the star stockpicker at Fidelity International, says he remains bullish on Chinese stocks and describes China as “the investment opportunity of the next decade.”
However, he adds that Chinese companies listed on offshore exchanges such as Hong Kong are generally trading at more attractive valuations than those in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
Of course, Chinese equity prices have less to do with what investors believe are companies’ fundamental valuations and more with speculation and the amount of money sloshing through the financial system.
As things stand, so-called “excess liquidity” remains abundant as the M2 measure of money supply is still growing at a faster pace than the economy. The ratio of M2 to gross domestic product will reach 180 per cent in 2010, according to Macquarie, up from 152 per cent in 2007 (see chart).
At the same time, expectations that the renminbi, the Chinese currency, will appreciate against the US dollar in the coming months and years are fuelling big inflows of “hot money” into the country’s asset markets. China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $100bn in September – the largest ever monthly increase – although only $25bn of that inflow could be explained by the trade balance and foreign direct investment.
With the Federal Reserve pouring $600bn into the global financial system through a second round of quantitative easing and with US interest rates still close to zero, hot money inflows into China show little sign of stopping.
Analysts also reckon that Beijing’s determination to prevent excessive price rises in markets that are key to social harmony – property and commodities – could enhance the attractions of speculating in equities. State media have reported that the authorities are considering the introduction of price controls in food and other commodity markets. This would hit companies in those sectors hard, as their revenues would be limited at a time when wages and other costs are continuing to rise.
“Governments usually tend to adopt some form of price control measures when inflation becomes a social issue,” says Vincent Chan at Credit Suisse, who reckons that sectors such as property, utilities and oil product refiners are most vulnerable. The best performers will be companies with high fixed costs, strong pricing power, low leverage and low policy risk, he says.
Market participants remain confident that Chinese equities will ride out the government’s measures to contain inflation.
The risk to this view is that inflation will prove more stubborn and dangerous than expected, prompting Beijing to unveil a sweeping move like aggressively cutting bank lending quotas.
If that were to happen, the shockwaves would ripple far beyond Shanghai.