神马文学网从肯德基涨价看中国的通货膨胀
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从肯德基涨价看中国的通货膨胀
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于2010-08-18 11:43:12翻译 | 已有1165人浏览
一年前，我在肯德基的标准餐价格为21.5元，两个月前涨到25.5元。今天，竟然涨到了28.5元。这样计算的话，一年内涨幅竟达32.6%。按我钱包里的人民币价值来说，这样的涨幅还是不算高。
Tags:中国、肯德基、通货膨胀China’s KFC Index
Consumer price inflation totaled 3.3% in July; these statistics provide plenty of fodder for the debate over whether China’s economy faces greater danger from overheating or from a renewed slowdown. The government has made it quite clear that its target is to keep consumer (CPI) inflation capped at 3% this year. And, wouldn’t you know, a whole parade of official sources, from the NDRC (China’s central planning honchos) to the PBOC (its central bank) have issued statements over the past few weeks predicting–with the unruffled, enigmatic certainty one normally associates with a blackjack dealer dealing a fixed deck–that inflation will come in right at 3% at the end of the year. (Per Reuters, “the National Development and Reform Commission said a growing number of factors, which it did not enumerate, would help to stabilize prices over the second half of the year.”)
在中国，7月份消费价格总体上涨 3.3%，这些数据足以说明中国经济是过热还是减缓。政府明确表示今年的目标是要保持消费（CPI）的最大涨幅为3%。
你可能不知道，从中国中央计划厅到中央银行，在过去几周内，整个官方机构都已发出声明，表示通货膨胀在年底会达到3%——他们的语气就好像打麻将提前设好局一样确定无疑。（路透社报道，“国家发改委指出有很多无法一一列举的因素，能够帮助在下半年稳定价格。”）
None of this was particularly on my mind when I walked into my local KFC today, in Beijing, to grab lunch. I always order the same thing at KFC: large popcorn chicken, small fries, and a large Pepsi. Okay, so it’s not original, but it makes for a consistent benchmark. So it’s been subtly obvious to me for some time that the prices have been going up.
我去肯德基吃饭的时候可一点都没想这些数据和声明。我每次去肯德基都吃老三样：大份炸鸡，小份薯条和大杯百事可乐。我知道这样的搭配很大众化，但每次都点这三样。所以如果涨价，我就能发现。
How much? Well, according to official Chinese statistics, food inflation (a component of the consumer price index) this year has been running at about 5-6%–higher than the rest of the consumer price basket, to be sure, but not high enough to tip the balance.
那涨了多少呢？据中国官方数据显示，比起其他日常用品来说，食品价格（消费价格指数的其中一项）上涨了5-6%，但这样的涨幅还到不了影响市场稳定的程度。
How does my KFC experience in Beijing compare? A year ago, my standard meal cost RMB 21.50. A couple of months ago it rose to RMB 25.50. Today, for the first time, it set me back RMB 28.50. For those keeping track, that’s a 32.6% price hike in a single year.
那我在肯德基的消费经历又如何呢？一年前，我在肯德基的标准餐价格为21.5元，两个月前涨到25.5元。今天，竟然涨到了28.5元。这样计算的话，一年内涨幅竟达32.6%。
There’s nothing scientific about this sample. It’s purely anecdotal. Perhaps KFC, or the Beijing market, is an aberration. (I’m eager to hear anyone’s theories.) But I think it’s a data point worth noting, such caveats aside. KFC isn’t some outlier in the Chinese economy, like high-priced Starbucks that still caters mainly to young, cosmopolitan latte-sippers.
这样计算虽没什么太大科学性，只是自己信手拈来的例子。也可能肯德基，或北京市场的情况比较特殊。（我很期待听到大家的意见。）个人感觉这些数据说明不了什么，只是个小信号。肯德基在中国经济中并不是特例，像价格较贵的星巴克一样，目标群体还是喜欢喝拿铁的都市年轻人。
KFC is incredibly popular with the laobaixing (the “common people:), who find chicke– especially the localized versions offered at KFC–far more familiar and appetizing than either coffee or burgers. It outnumbers McDonald’s 2:1, with over 2,000 outlets and a reach that extends far into 3rd and 4th tier provincial cities. In China, KFC may be higher end than most, but it’s definitely mass market.
肯德基也受到“老北京人（北京当地人）”的追捧，他们感觉肯德基餐厅烤鸡的味道好熟悉，比咖啡和汉堡要有食欲的多。肯德基与麦当劳在中国的比例为2：1。麦当劳在中国有2000家餐厅，已经扩展到省级三四线城市。在中国，肯德基算是较为高端一些的餐厅，但市场绝对大。
I’m not questioning the validity of China’s official figures based on one lunchtime order. But it’s important to remember that inflation is a psychological as much as a statistical phenomenon, its impact largely a function of consumer perception. My perception, as a consumer looking at one reasonable benchmark, is that 3%, or even 6%, is way below the effect higher prices seem to be having on the renminbi in my wallet.
我并不是要拿一顿午餐的价格来质疑中国官方数据的有效性。但有一点很重要，要记住，通货膨胀是数字现象，但同时也是心理现象，它会很大程度上影响消费者知觉。我的消费知觉是，作为消费者，3%甚至是6%这样的涨幅百分比，按我钱包里的人民币价值来说，这样的涨幅还是不算高。
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