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Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Yeeeeeech....
You can thank the good people of United Airlines for my ability to get this post done relatively promptly. My brief flight from Seattle to San Francisco has been delayed three hours. So here I sit on the plane, waxing poetic about this insane market.
By the way, does anyone find this image from the login page of TMobile to be strangely suggestive? (Long, uncomfortable pause). No? I guess it's just me.

Here's the NZD/USD - - what I have to say about it is basically the same as what I've got to say in the next paragraph.....

As long as the dollar remains weak, there's going to be yet another reason for stocks to go higher. Looking at the EUR/USD chart, it's clear that we're at an extreme point, but (obviously) it could push to yet another extreme. This chart, in case it's not clear to you, shows the strength of the Euro (and, conversely, the weakness of the dollar), so mentally invert it.

What's interesting about the market is just how swiftly it has pushed higher. Look at the chart below. I've highlighted each of the most recent three "surges", and as you can see, each surge is happening with greater speed. The two lonely down periods here were last summer (oh, how I miss those days....) and - ever so briefly - about eight weeks ago.

The NASDAQ Composite is still within its rising channel, at the tippy-tippy top. Clearly Apple's (AAPL) sensational earnings will push both Apple and the NASDAQ higher first thing in the morning.

The S&P 500 is clearly above its channel. An overshot, or a whole new ball game? Search me.

If you want a truly bullish picture of the market, take a step back and look at the long-term $XMI. This is a chart of an amazing breakout, a perfect pullback, and a subsequent push to new highs. This is exactly what bull markets are made of. Astonishing.

I have suggested Akamai (AKAM) as a short before. It didn't really perform until today.

I like looking for weak stocks on a day like today, because if a stock can't get it up on a day like this, it's in sorry shape. Check out ATI.

Same goes for Colgate, which actually opened higher. Look at the honey of a bearish engulfing pattern on this one.

CRS, mentioned here yesterday, is failing its breakout, and it fell today on strong volume.

Dril Quip (DRQ), mentioned in this blog before as a buy, continues to perform well. Just about anything to do with energy (either classic or alternate) seems to be zooming these days. I can at least take heart that I am in a natural gas partnership.

General Dynamics (GD) looks like a potential short. It busted its trendline a number of weeks back, and it seems to have double topped today, falling when everything else was rising.

I don't have any particular opinion on GOOG, but it only rose one tenth of one percent today - - pretty feeble, wouldn't you say? I think it may be telling. I'd also point out that all the gains from its fantastic earnings report a few days ago have vanished. Everyone who bought into that rally - even at the day's low - is in a losing position now.

I like Southern Copper (PCU) as a short at this price.

Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) - - man, can you imagine being the receptionist there and saying that name all day long? - - continues to look fantastic as a bullish play. Wonderful strength on handsome volume.

Questar also looks good on the long side.

Given today's action, I'm glad the readers voting to take anonymous comments down. You can imagine what much mud slinging would be going on right now.
at4/25/200720 insightful comments  Links to this post
Labels:akam,ati,crs,drq,gd,goog,new highs,pcu,schn,str
Another Barrier Falls
Well, it's history now. Dow 13,000 wasn't just crossed, it was blown off its feet. As I type this (impatiently waiting for a shuttle to pick me up at the Seattle airport....) the Dow is up over 100 points, and all the news sites are breathless with reports of the Dow's new high water mark.
I remain awestruck at the strength and consistency of this bull run. The bulls were right. The bears were wrong. I was wrong.
I have no idea how long this rally is going to last. I cannot, from a technical perspective, jump in with both feet into a market like this. Those who are in already, congratulations. As for myself, I can only take comfort from the handsome rise in the stock of my employer! Thank goodness for incentive options......

I'm about to do a speech to a group about ProphetCharts (with a shameless mention ofmy book about charting, naturally), so I'm not sure how late my post will be tonight. So if you're reading this after hours, my apologies - - - I will get to it once I have the time, but I'm traveling today. Thanks.
at4/25/200738 insightful comments  Links to this post
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Vox Populi
All right, the votes are in!
I appreciate so many people voting - well over 600 took part in the first "Technical Analysis with Tim Knight" poll, and the results are illuminating.
The first question was to address whether or not anonymous posters should be allowed to comment on this blog. I've flip-flopped on this decision (alone) many times. Sometimes I open it up to anonymous posters, since it increases the activity of the comments section and makes it easy for everyone to post. But then, once a few bad apples spoil things for everyone else with abuse and pointless put-downs, I decide to shut them off again.
So I decided to take this issue to the voting public. Watching the results was like watching a horse race. It was neck and neck for a long time, then "Ban Anonymous" starting to take hold. In the end, the majority voted to eliminate anonymous posters. I guess the verbal fistfights got to be just too much. So.......you have to be a registered user to post here. That definitely means the comments section will be a lot less active, but it will by the same token be a lot more civil.

The next question I asked was how to improve the blog - - unfortunately, I only gave three choices: more index analysis, more stock analysis, or a reduction in the comedy. I didn't include a forth choice, "Everything is Fine", which apparently a lot of people would have checked had they been given the chance.

Those that clicked Other entered nearly one hundred specific suggestions, most of which were along the lines of "Leave it just the way it is." So - - will do!

Finally, out of curiosity, I wanted to see if the readers of this blog tended to be bulls, bears, or simply rational non-animals. It seems that most people claim to be agnostic, neither bullish nor bearish. I guess this is similar to asking whether a person is liberal or conservative, and they answer "economically conservative and socially liberal." It's a nice, safe middle ground. So be it.

In spite of the Dow's strong run today (and its continued attempts to crack 13,000 - - come on, can't you get it over with?!?!?) the Russell is still looking good on the short side.

And the Gold and Silver index continues to behave nicely within its descending channel.

I entered a new short today, CRR.

I don't have a position in CRS right now, but it looks like a potential short, since an otherwise beautiful bullish pattern isn't seeming to catch fire - - added to which, the volume has been slowly dying down for over a year.

I like the looks of MicroStrategy (MSTR) for a short position too.

...same story with MWP. As you can see, I'm using a trip of moving averages to help drive home the waning momentum.

As for ONT, the stock I keep mentioning as a long - - it continues to look good, and on sensational volume. Remember my cautionary tale from yesterday, though.

Lastly, my X puts finally started pushing up in price. It's about time.

Everyone is obsessed with 13,000. As I said, I (strangely) want to cross it. "13k and out of the way", so to speak. I imagine once this barrier is crossed, people will check that off their list and start selling into it.
Oh, and.......
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at4/24/200749 insightful comments  Links to this post
Labels:$rut,$spx,crs,mstr,mwp,ont,x
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