中国富人狂买奢侈品 Recovering rich spur pace of sales

On a recent bright autumn afternoon, a Chinese couple – she wrapped in furs, he in Louis Vuitton scarf – emerged from Pisa Orologeria, the exclusive watch boutique, in Milan’s luxury shopping district.

近日一个秋高气爽的下午，一对中国夫妇——女的全身裹着皮草，男的系一条路易维登(Louis Vuitton)围巾——出现在米兰奢侈品购物区一家名为Pisa Orologeria的手表精品专卖店。

Flanked by a Chinese translator, a store assistant and a security guard, the couple scanned the shop windows and settled on a Roger Dubuis Excalibur Double Tourbillon jewellery watch for him. Then they turned their attention to Patek Philippe ladies’ watches. All told, a shopping trip worth at least €250,000 ($344,621).

在一位中文翻译、一名专卖店员工和一位保安的陪同下，夫妻俩仔细看过橱窗里的展示品，最终决定给丈夫买一块罗杰杜彼(Roger Dubuis) Excalibur系列双陀飞轮镶宝石腕表(Double Tourbillon jewellery watch)，而后他们又把目光投向了百达翡丽(Patek Philippe)女表系列。合计下来，这一趟购物至少花费了25万欧元（约344621美元）。

Visits by customers such as these are a large part of the reason behind the unexpectedly strong growth in the luxury goods industry, and especially the watches and jewellery segment, as the world’s rich emerge from the financial crisis.

随着世界上的有钱人从金融危机中恢复过来，这类顾客的光临，成为奢侈品行业增长之迅猛出人意料的主要原因之一，而钟表和珠宝领域的增长尤为明显。

Moreover, many industry experts believe consumers from China, which overtook the US last year as the biggest destination for watches, will be an even greater reason behind the sustained growth of hard luxury next year too.

此外，许多行业专家相信，中国的消费者也将成为硬奢侈品明年持续增长的更重要推手。中国去年取代美国，成为全球最大的手表销售地。

Scilla Huang Sun, head of equities at Zurich-based Swiss & Global, considers demand from these consumers as one of the main reasons investors should continue to take a look at the sector.

总部位于苏黎世的瑞士及环球资产管理公司(Swiss & Global)证券主管黄意芝(Scilla Huang Sun)认为，来自这些消费者的需求是投资者应该继续关注该领域的主要原因之一。

Even as share prices have risen by as much as 50 per cent for some luxury goods companies this year, Ms Huang Sun believes demand from China will keep the sector attractive in 2011 as well.

尽管一些奢侈品公司今年的股价涨幅高达50%，但黄意芝相信，来自中国的需求会让该行业在2011年继续保持吸引力。

The latest Swiss data show that a third of Swiss watches are sold in China, and the strengthening of the renminbi over the past weeks mean that still more Chinese will find it attractive to buy watches while travelling.

瑞士发布的最新数据表明，有三分之一的瑞士手表都销往了中国，而过去几周人民币的升值意味着，会有更多的中国人觉得出国游时买上几块名牌手表很划算。

“In the first six months of 2010, exports to Greater China grew by 49 per cent. The market is booming,” Ms Huang Sun says.

“2010年上半年，对大中华地区的出口增长了49%。市场非常红火，”黄意芝表示。

After a 10 per cent rise in 2010, the $168bn global luxury market is seen returning to its usual 3 to 5 per cent growth rates next year, according to Altagamma, the Italian luxury goods foundation.

意大利奢侈品基金会Altagamma认为，经过今年10%的增长后，规模达1680亿美元的全球奢侈品市场明年将回到往常3%至5%的增幅。

This relative slowdown has spawned caution from investors, and some companies, including Richemont, the world’s second largest luxury goods group, believe business will become tougher next year.

这一相对放缓已让投资者产生了谨慎心态，包括全球第二大奢侈品集团历峰(Richemont)在内的一些公司相信，明年的生意会变得难做起来。

However, within that, the watches and jewellery segment is seen as remaining strong and even gaining momentum in the second half of 2011, when other parts of the luxury goods industry are expected to slow.

不过，奢侈品行业内部不同领域的表现亦不尽相同。预计手表和珠宝领域仍将保持强势，甚至可能在2011年下半年重拾升势，而其它领域则将放缓。

Demand for hard luxury – watches, jewellery, pens and lighters – is expected to grow by 8.5 per cent in 2011, with sales up a further 9.5 per cent in the past six months of the year, according to Altagamma.

Altagamma预计，2011年，硬奢侈品（手表、珠宝、钢笔和打火机等）的销售额将增长8.5%。过去6个月，此类商品的销售收入又增长了9.5%。

Jon Cox of Kepler Capital Markets shares the view that next year “demand will remain robust” within the watches segment.

开普勒资本市场(Kepler Capital Markets)的乔恩•柯克斯(Jon Cox)对此表示赞同，他认为明年手表行业的“需求将保持强劲”。

“Swiss watches have captured the imagination of the Chinese in Asia. Asians are also buying watches in France and North America and the lower currency is helping tourists to buy a watch and bring it home,” he says.

“瑞士手表抓住了亚洲华人的想象力。亚洲人也在法国和北美购买手表，（美元和欧元）汇率走低有助于游客买块手表带回家，”他说。

“Next year I’d expect we will see ongoing growth, and the three major watch companies – Swatch Group, Rolex and Richemont – are all well placed.”

“明年我预计市场会持续增长，全球三大手表制造商——斯沃琪(Swatch)、劳力士(Rolex)和历峰——都有优势。”

Mr Cox disagrees with the view that the rebound in sales in 2010 was due predominantly to wholesale restocking after a barren year in 2009.

柯克斯并不认同，2010年销售的反弹，主要是由于批发商在度过2009年惨淡的一年后重新进货。

“I don’t see why there would be such a sudden deterioration because the economic situation is much better in Asia than in the developed world,” he says, adding that retail data from Singapore, Hong Kong and mainland China shows growth from the end consumer.

“亚洲的经济局势比发达国家好得多，所以我并不认为情况会突然恶化，”他说。他补充表示，新加坡、香港和中国内地的零售数据表明，针对最终消费者的销售出现了增长。

All this is good news for behemoths such as Richemont, owner of Cartier and Jaeger-LeCoultre, LVMH and Swatch as well as the smaller Swiss producers such as Roger Dubuis, a boutique house founded only in 1995, that are already reaping the rewards of a strong year.

对于历峰（卡地亚(Cartier)和积家(Jaeger-LeCoultre)的所有者）、路易威登(LVMH)、斯沃琪）等行业巨头，以及一些规模较小的生产商（如1995年才创建的罗杰杜彼精品店）来说，所有这一切都是个好消息。它们今年销售火爆，已经挣得盆满钵满。

For Swatch, 44 per cent of sales come from all of Asia, 28 per cent of them from China. This compares with 46 per cent of sales from Asia for the Richemont, 35 per cent from the region for LVMH and 43 per cent for the Gucci Group.

对于斯沃琪来说，有44%的销售收入来自亚洲，而其中又有28%来自中国。相比之下，历峰、路易威登和古姿(Gucci)分别有46%、35%和43%的销售收入来自亚洲。

Richemont last month forecast significantly better first-half profits because of sharply higher sales in the first five months of the year. Its specialist watch brands, led by upmarket Vacheron Constantin and Jaeger-LeCoultre, proved strongest, with unadjusted sales up 40 per cent. Jewellery, including the Van Cleef & Arpels brand, rose 32 per cent.

由于今年头5个月销售火爆，历峰10月份预测，公司上半年的利润将大幅飙升。其旗下由高端品牌江诗丹顿(Vacheron Constantin)与积家领衔的主打名表表现最为强劲，未作调整的销售额飙升了40%，而包括梵克雅宝(Van Cleef & Arpels)品牌在内的珠宝销售则增长了32%。

As with rivals LVMH and Swatch Group, its business in Asia proved particularly buoyant. Sales were up 51 per cent in the period, or 36 per cent adjusted for currencies and acquisitions. Europe and the Americas were resilient, while Japan was up 4 per cent on an adjusted basis.

与竞争对手路易维登和斯沃琪一样，历峰的亚洲业务表现尤其靓丽，同期销售额增长51%（经汇率和并购因素调整后的增幅为36%）。欧洲和美国市场显示出弹性，而日本市场经调整后的销售收入增长了4%。

While luxury sales in the US, still by far the world’s biggest luxury market even since the financial crisis, tend to tilt towards the relatively lower cost aspirational luxury segment, in China luxury consumers buy the priciest goods. The same goes for consumers from the Middle East, also a focus for hard luxury sales.

即便遭遇了金融危机，美国仍是全球最大的奢侈品市场。虽然美国的奢侈品销售往往向价位较低的引领型奢侈品行业(aspirational luxury segment)倾斜，但中国的消费者专买最贵的奢侈品。中东的消费者也是如此，专注于硬奢侈品。

Last month, LVMH, the world’s biggest luxury goods company by sales, reported a 14 per cent increase in like-for-like sales in the first nine months of the year. Watches and jewellery showed the strongest growth, up 29 per cent on a reported basis.

销售收入位居全球奢侈品公司之首的路易维登上月公布，今年头9个月同类商品销售额增长14%，手表和珠宝增长最为强劲，增幅达29%。

The strong increases prompted Swatch Group, which makes watches from the simple Swatch to handmade Breguets, to reinforce its hope for record sales and earnings for 2010. Swatch said growth had continued to be “solid” in July across all of its activities and regions.

强劲的增长增强了斯沃琪集团2010年收入与利润双双创下纪录的希望。公司表示，旗下各款产品7月份在全球各地的销售继续保持旺盛势头。斯沃琪生产从一般的斯沃琪表到手工定制的宝玑表(Breguet)等手表。

Nevertheless, some experts remain cautious, in part due to volatile currency movements.

然而，有些专家还是持审慎观点，部分原因在于汇率的波动。

Johann Rupert, Richemont group executive chairman and chief executive, has warned that the past year’s momentum might not be maintained.

历峰执行主席兼首席执行官约翰•鲁珀特(Johann Rupert)已发出警告，过去一年的增长势头或许无法继续下去。

Richemont, which produces mainly in Switzerland, would be hurt by exchange rates, given the surge in the Swiss franc against the euro – its reporting currency – and the dollar.

历峰的生产主要放在瑞士，鉴于瑞士法郎兑欧元（业绩计价货币）和美元汇率大幅上升，汇率的变动可能会影响到公司的业绩。

Mr Rupert says sales in Asia and the Middle East “continue to expand”, but performance in other regions remains below the record levels of 2008-09.

鲁珀特表示，在亚洲和中东的销售收入会“继续扩大”，但其它地区的表现仍会低于2008-09年度的创纪录水平。

Still, industry experts say that pressure will be cushioned by the pricing flexibility enjoyed by luxury goods companies. Some watch manufacturers have already pushed up prices by about 10 per cent, allowing them to offset the currency swings.

不过，行业专家认为，奢侈品公司享有的定价弹性会缓解部分压力。一些手表厂商已经将价格提升了10%，从而可以抵消汇率波动带来的影响。

Luca Solca, a senior analyst at Bernstein Research, says trading momentum is favouring companies with higher exposure to emerging markets.

伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)高级分析师卢卡•索尔卡(Luca Solca)称，交易势头有利于那些与新兴国家市场联系更为紧密的公司。

He says this coincides with recent research from the Boston Consulting Group that shows the emerging market consumer’s perception of the macro-economic picture is materially better, and purchase intentions are materially higher US or European consumers.

他表示，这与波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)最近公布的调研报告不谋而合。报告表明，新兴市场的消费者对宏观经济状况的看法明显更为乐观，购买欲望也比欧美消费者要强烈得多。

Moreover, Mr Solca expects retail stores for hard luxury to expand by about 20 per cent by 2011 with most of that expansion coming in China. Chinese consumers such as the well-dressed couple in Milan, will soon have more opportunities to shop closer to home too.

此外，索尔卡预计，到2011年，硬奢侈品的零售门店将增加大约20%，其中大部分会开在中国。中国消费者（如本文开头那对衣着考究的夫妇）很快也将有更多机会不用跑那么远去购物。