财政困境下的中国改革

 　　Fiscal woes shape next stages of China's reform
　　原文来源：South China Morning Post
　　Chinese officials have said the crisis that began in the US will not slow down long-planned reforms in China's financial markets. They insist they will go ahead with plans to introduce margin trading, short selling, and futures contracts on share prices. But Beijing slowed capital-account liberalisation after the Asian financial crisis 10 years ago, so it is possible that America's troubles could make it more cautious.
　　China has played an important role in financing the US budget deficit in recent years by managing the yuan's exchange rate against the US dollar. Beijing does not want its large current-account surplus to cause the currency to overshoot on the upside, and may now want to slow the yuan's appreciation out of concern for the global economic slowdown.
　　If so, China would have to expand its foreign exchange reserves by another US$300 billion to US400 billion, which would allow it to finance the large expansion in the US fiscal deficit. Recent slight falls in the yuan suggest that China's exchange rate policy may be changing following its 20 per cent appreciation since July 2005.
　　Germany's finance minister, Peer Steinbruck, has said the crisis will reduce US financial hegemony and create a more multipolar world. Chinese officials have not yet echoed these comments, but the US experience will naturally make them more suspicious of western investment bankers and US-style regulation.
　　The People's Bank joined the co-ordinated global interest rate cut on October 8 - the first time China has participated in a global monetary policy move. Beijing's plans to increase infrastructure spending by US$586 billion during 2009 and 2010 demonstrate clearly that it is prepared to compensate for export weakness by stimulating domestic demand. It must now take further action to bolster consumer spending.
　　Beijing's goal is to keep annual growth above 8 per cent, to generate sufficient employment to maintain social stability. It is currently also more sensitive to employment risks than usual, because several thousand small factories in the textile and toy sectors have closed this year as a result of the impact of rising labour costs and the appreciating yuan on profit margins.
　　China wants to shift from low value-added, labour-intensive industries such as textiles to higher value-added sectors such as electronics and capital goods. But it does not want to generate high levels of unemployment as this transition occurs.
　　China has the resources to cope with the current financial crisis. Foreign exchange reserves are an immense US$1.9 trillion. Booming tax receipts have provided the government with a fiscal surplus. The critical issue has been policymakers' willingness to act promptly, before there is clear evidence of an economic downturn. The government's stimulus package demonstrates that it is aware of the risks in the global economy and is prepared to act decisively.
　　The current crisis marks an important step in China's evolution as a great economic power. It has been pursuing a policy of extreme Keynesianism at a time when Europe and the US are also undertaking massive interventions in their financial systems to prevent the crisis from leading to a global financial collapse.
　　Thus, there is a growing convergence between China's and the Group of Seven leading industrialised nations' economic policy, born of the need to compensate for massive failures in US financial regulation and monetary policy.
　　The US has been lobbying China for some time for economic policy changes aimed at stimulating domestic demand and open markets. Ironically, to compensate for a crisis that America's own policies have created in global markets, the US is now getting what it has long sought.
　　(David Hale is chairman of David Hale Global Economics and a long-time analyst of China's economic reform process. Copyright: Project Syndicate) 
　　财政困境下的中国改革
　　作者：David Hale
　　翻译：CommonData
　　2008年12月11日
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　　中国官员认为，始于美国的这场危机不会对这个国家金融市场改革的长期计划产生影响。他们坚决主张按原定计划引入保证金交易，卖空交易，以及股指期货。不过，十年前的亚洲金融危机之后，北京曾放慢非经常性资本账户的自由化进程，因此，这次美国遇到的麻烦很可能促使其行动更为谨慎。
　　通过比照美元调整人民币汇率，近年来中国一直在弥补美国预算赤字方面扮演重要角色。北京并不情愿其巨大的经常性账户盈余造成人民币过分上涨，此外出于对全球经济放缓的担忧，他们现在更愿意放慢人民币升值的步伐。
　　如果这样，中国将不得不额外增加三千到四千亿美元外汇储备，这样一来将为美国膨胀的财政赤字提供融资。从最近汇率微量下跌可以看出，人民币自2005年以来升值百分之二十后，中国的货币政策或许将有所变化。
　　德国财政部长施泰因布吕克曾表示，危机将减少美国的金融支配力，并创造一个更为多极化的世界。对此评论，中国官员尚未作出反应，不过，美国的切身经历无疑令其对西方的投资银行家以及美式管理产生更多猜疑。
　　今年十月八日，中国人民银行加入全球降息联合行动的行列，这是中国首次参与全球货币政策行动。2009和2010两年，北京计划增加5860亿美元投资用于基础设施开支，这清楚地表明政府准备通过刺激国内需求弥补出口缺口。目前他们必须采取进一步行动，以支撑消费者的消费行为。
　　为了提供足够的就业机会，保持社会稳定，北京的目标是保持年度经济增长率位于8%以上。而对于就业风险，他们现在比以往任何时候都更为敏感，这是因为在劳动力成本上升及人民币升值双重打击下，今年纺织与玩具行业已有数千家小型工厂倒闭。
　　中国希望从像纺织这样的低附加值，劳动密集型产业向电子及资本产品这样的高附加值行业过渡。不过，在这一过渡阶段，他们不愿看到大量失业现象产生。
　　中国拥有高达1.9万亿美元外汇储备，急速上升的税收为政府提供财政盈余，这是他们应付时下金融危机的本钱。关键问题在于，在经济衰退迹象明朗化之前，决策者是否拥有迅速出手的意愿。政府一揽子经济刺激计划足以证明，他们已经意识到全球经济的风险，并为果断采取措施做好准备。
　　作为一支巨大的经济力量，这次危机为中国的发展打下深深的烙印。美国和欧洲正在大规模干预其金融体制，以避免危机导致全球金融体系的崩溃，与此同时，中国也开始奉行这样的极端凯恩斯主义政策。
　　因此，中国与七大发达工业国的经济政策正在日益趋同。而这源于弥补美国金融监管及货币政策巨大失败的需要。
　　一段时间以来，美国不断游说中国将其经济政策瞄向刺激国内需求，以及对外开放市场。具有讽刺意味的是，这次危机事实上是在全球市场中由美国一手造成，作为补偿，他们正在得到长久以来求之不得的东西。
　　（作者是David Hale Global Economics主席，以及中国经济改革进程长期分析家。版权所有：Project Syndicate）