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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Odelay!
The Bear: "Are you an assassin?"
The Bull: "I'm a soldier."
The Bear: "You're neither. You're an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks, to collect a bill."
Needless to say days like this make me happy. Particularly since today's 243 point drop on the Dow was within plain sight......two weeks, to the day........of the lovely 400+ point drop on the Dow on February 27th. A new force may be emerging.
Not that long ago - say, last year - I would have been jumping around talking about how it's the end of the world and the bears are going to own everything, and so forth. No more. I've learned a skosh of humility (and paranoia) since then. So I take it a day at a time. All the same, I grin when I imagine what that Australian touch-hole who called me must be going through. Although I'm assuming he has money to lose, which is probably a false hope.
On the occasions when I drive my family up to the mountains of California, we pass many towns that seem completely populated by those completely grotesque and utterly uniform beige-with-red-tile monstrosities that are advertised as "Homes" in the weekend papers. These vile creations seem to be the work of firms like Toll, Pulte, and Beazer, all of whom seem to be going to hell in a handbasket. Maybe there's a little justice in this sad, sick world after all.
The unwinding of the "buy and flip" insanity is crushing the sub-prime lenders which, in turn, is causing we few.........we happy few........to have good days like today. Here's Fremont....
And the poster child of this debacle, New Century. Thanks, fellers! We appreciate your bringing along the kind of disaster we need to start something really horrific!
The story for the indexes is the same across the board, so pay attention: if they can break the lows set next week, it's party time. If they stabilize and recover, we're probably going to be range-bound by something approximating today's range. Here's the NASDAQ composite with a potential target circled.
The minute by minute charts illustrate how the bullish breakout that was attempting to form completely failed. Disappointed bulls! Our specialty! Die, you weasels....
My favorite index, the Russell 2000, needs to break below $760 for us to continue to celebrate.
Here's a minute chart of the $RUT with more detail. An analysis of the psyches which pushed the market up, and then down, are provided for your convenience.
This is getting old, but here we go - the S&P 500.....
And the minute graph of the same.......
The $XMI is staring in the face of a grand breakout failure.
AutoZone, which has been up about three million percent in the past few months, is finally breaking. I've got puts. Lots of 'em.
Recent favorite CME is throwing lots of green into my account.
Oh, and then there's Google. The company that could do no wrong. These turds paid $1.6 billion for a web site where people could post mostly stolen content. And they haven't been able to figure out how to make money at it. And now they're getting sued for $1 billion. And I've got a hunch there are other big media companies that will follow. Nice goin', braniacs. Talk about buying at the top. Had they waited a few months, they could have picked up the same company for 1/8th of the price, I bet.
Ah, and Goldman. Yep, you've seen this mentioned here many times. My puts on this did great - - I bought a bunch at the top today. In spite of blowout earnings, they fell down hard on huge volume with a bearish engulfing pattern. Yes!
Wow, it's almost too much pleasure to take. Maybe the bulls will wipe some of the grin off our faces tomorrow, eh? We'll see. Deep down, I'm always hoping we're at the start of something very big that will absolutely destroy those creeps. Hope springs eternal! Go get 'em, a'ight?
at3/13/200725 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels:$indu,$rut,$xmi,azo,bzh,cme,fmt,goog,gs,nzd/usd
Monday, March 12, 2007
Can I Buy an Emotion?
Wow. This market's a snoozer right now.
I know, I know, it's been up. But it's still a bore. Not even two weeks ago, the entire thing was collapsing. Now we're back to the markets just inching around, not really knowing what to do with themselves.
Speaking of boredom, here's my pointless social observation of the day. I eat out a fair bit. I eat a lot of Chinese food in particular - - most of it quite good, since I live in the SF Bay Area. I'd guess I've probably eaten at Chinese restaurants maybe 700 times or more.
I therefore have a pretty good eye about what to expect. Among the stranger phenomenon......which inexplicably bugs me........is the Person Reading At the Table.
Now, if some poor soul is by himself, by all means, read! I'd hate to see a person alone just staring into space. But when you're with a companion.....and typically, it seems to be a wife.....to whip out the newspaper and read it while you await your food is just plain rude.
And it's not like these couples are even exchanging opinions about what they are reading. Only one person is reading, and both of them are staying dead silent. The ignored one - the wife, typically - is just staring into space, probably wondering how she wound up with this total dork. The inclusion of other family members seems to diminish this desire not a whit. Weird.
Oh, yeah. This is supposed to be about technical analysis. Well, my blog, my space, right? But your wish is my command.....
There is formidable resistance around the levels we're at right now. The bad news for us bears is that, should this resistance be broken, it makes an easy argument for the Dow to blast about 400 points higher. I've highlighted the "resistance zone" as it stands now on the S&P 500.
A longer-term view - this one a minute graph of the Dow over the past couple of months - shows there's plenty of upside on the Dow if its only substantial barrier is the underside of that giant broken trendline. Now that would be a real shame. I imagine the bulls have already long forgotten what happened on February 27th. Another few hundred points would make them giddy again. And we all know how nauseating that can be.
The Russell 2000 shows very substantial resistance about the $796 zone, which is where two Fib retracement lines lay in the the same vicinity. A $RUT above $800 would depress poor old Tim mightily.
Just a short ideas to ponder today. CRS on the short side.
MCD also on the short side, with puts being attractive for you option players.
NBL, with a nice RSI signal and a potential double top, another short idea.
PICO, mentioned here a couple of times already, is having a nice run up. (Happily, this was one of my rare bullish suggestions).
I'm more animated and interesting where there's dynamism in the market. Particularly on the downside. Try me again tomorrow. The market muse may have smiled upon me by then. In the meantime, I'd like you to enjoy the adventures of.....Stedman!
',1)">
at3/12/200714 insightful comments Links to this post
Labels:crs,mcd,nbl,pico
Friday, March 09, 2007
Stalemate
In yesterday's post, I laid out bullish and bearish arguments for the market, since we seem to be in one of those awful stand-offs between the bulls and bears. Today played out in precisely that manner.
The widely-anticipated jobs report came out. The results were interpreted as bullish. The markets zoomed higher at the opening bell. Fibonacci retracements were touched all over the place, and then the market started to soften fast. It went negative. Then positive. Then negative. Then positive. And finally ended with about 1/4th of the gain it had at its high point. Just ridiculous.
I'm 100% in puts and shorts right now. Below are my positions. Boldfaced items are puts.
Here's the Dow 30. You can see it bounces off that Fib beautifully.
And here's the Russell. For the second day in a row, it bounced off the fib. It actually managed to sneak across the line a little, but not for long.
The $SPX is pretty similar to the $INDU.
I've got a couple of long suggestions. Here's Bowater (BOW):
And, and even better one, Pico Holdings (PICO), which has the advantage of a big volume surge recently.
A few short ideas. BBD seems to have retraced within the Fib retracement nicely.
MS, like a lot of other investment banks, has likely retraced to an area where I think it doesn't have the strength to climb any higher.
Microstrategy (MSTR) blew me out a couple of weeks ago, but it was a one-day fake out. This one looks weak.
Options on the QQQQs have the advantage of being penny-priced, which is much more fair to traders.
Reynolds (RAI) is retracing back to its broken dome pattern. I also have puts on another aluminum stock, symbol AL, but the chart isn't as pretty.
Lastly, symbol RYAAY looks like a low risk/high reward short candidate.
My kids have given me some kind of bug, so I'm typing this with the chills. Even though it is 70 degrees outside, I'm going to go sit in front of the fire! Have a good weekend!
at3/09/200730 insightful comments Links to this post
Labels:bbd,bow,msft,mstr,pico,qqqq,rai,ryaay
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Odelay!
The Bear: "Are you an assassin?"
The Bull: "I'm a soldier."
The Bear: "You're neither. You're an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks, to collect a bill."
Needless to say days like this make me happy. Particularly since today's 243 point drop on the Dow was within plain sight......two weeks, to the day........of the lovely 400+ point drop on the Dow on February 27th. A new force may be emerging.
Not that long ago - say, last year - I would have been jumping around talking about how it's the end of the world and the bears are going to own everything, and so forth. No more. I've learned a skosh of humility (and paranoia) since then. So I take it a day at a time. All the same, I grin when I imagine what that Australian touch-hole who called me must be going through. Although I'm assuming he has money to lose, which is probably a false hope.
On the occasions when I drive my family up to the mountains of California, we pass many towns that seem completely populated by those completely grotesque and utterly uniform beige-with-red-tile monstrosities that are advertised as "Homes" in the weekend papers. These vile creations seem to be the work of firms like Toll, Pulte, and Beazer, all of whom seem to be going to hell in a handbasket. Maybe there's a little justice in this sad, sick world after all.
The unwinding of the "buy and flip" insanity is crushing the sub-prime lenders which, in turn, is causing we few.........we happy few........to have good days like today. Here's Fremont....
And the poster child of this debacle, New Century. Thanks, fellers! We appreciate your bringing along the kind of disaster we need to start something really horrific!
The story for the indexes is the same across the board, so pay attention: if they can break the lows set next week, it's party time. If they stabilize and recover, we're probably going to be range-bound by something approximating today's range. Here's the NASDAQ composite with a potential target circled.
The minute by minute charts illustrate how the bullish breakout that was attempting to form completely failed. Disappointed bulls! Our specialty! Die, you weasels....
My favorite index, the Russell 2000, needs to break below $760 for us to continue to celebrate.
Here's a minute chart of the $RUT with more detail. An analysis of the psyches which pushed the market up, and then down, are provided for your convenience.
This is getting old, but here we go - the S&P 500.....
And the minute graph of the same.......
The $XMI is staring in the face of a grand breakout failure.
AutoZone, which has been up about three million percent in the past few months, is finally breaking. I've got puts. Lots of 'em.
Recent favorite CME is throwing lots of green into my account.
Oh, and then there's Google. The company that could do no wrong. These turds paid $1.6 billion for a web site where people could post mostly stolen content. And they haven't been able to figure out how to make money at it. And now they're getting sued for $1 billion. And I've got a hunch there are other big media companies that will follow. Nice goin', braniacs. Talk about buying at the top. Had they waited a few months, they could have picked up the same company for 1/8th of the price, I bet.
Ah, and Goldman. Yep, you've seen this mentioned here many times. My puts on this did great - - I bought a bunch at the top today. In spite of blowout earnings, they fell down hard on huge volume with a bearish engulfing pattern. Yes!
Wow, it's almost too much pleasure to take. Maybe the bulls will wipe some of the grin off our faces tomorrow, eh? We'll see. Deep down, I'm always hoping we're at the start of something very big that will absolutely destroy those creeps. Hope springs eternal! Go get 'em, a'ight?
at3/13/200725 insightful comments
Links to this postLabels:$indu,$rut,$xmi,azo,bzh,cme,fmt,goog,gs,nzd/usd
Monday, March 12, 2007
Can I Buy an Emotion?
Wow. This market's a snoozer right now.
I know, I know, it's been up. But it's still a bore. Not even two weeks ago, the entire thing was collapsing. Now we're back to the markets just inching around, not really knowing what to do with themselves.
Speaking of boredom, here's my pointless social observation of the day. I eat out a fair bit. I eat a lot of Chinese food in particular - - most of it quite good, since I live in the SF Bay Area. I'd guess I've probably eaten at Chinese restaurants maybe 700 times or more.
I therefore have a pretty good eye about what to expect. Among the stranger phenomenon......which inexplicably bugs me........is the Person Reading At the Table.
Now, if some poor soul is by himself, by all means, read! I'd hate to see a person alone just staring into space. But when you're with a companion.....and typically, it seems to be a wife.....to whip out the newspaper and read it while you await your food is just plain rude.
And it's not like these couples are even exchanging opinions about what they are reading. Only one person is reading, and both of them are staying dead silent. The ignored one - the wife, typically - is just staring into space, probably wondering how she wound up with this total dork. The inclusion of other family members seems to diminish this desire not a whit. Weird.
Oh, yeah. This is supposed to be about technical analysis. Well, my blog, my space, right? But your wish is my command.....
There is formidable resistance around the levels we're at right now. The bad news for us bears is that, should this resistance be broken, it makes an easy argument for the Dow to blast about 400 points higher. I've highlighted the "resistance zone" as it stands now on the S&P 500.
A longer-term view - this one a minute graph of the Dow over the past couple of months - shows there's plenty of upside on the Dow if its only substantial barrier is the underside of that giant broken trendline. Now that would be a real shame. I imagine the bulls have already long forgotten what happened on February 27th. Another few hundred points would make them giddy again. And we all know how nauseating that can be.
The Russell 2000 shows very substantial resistance about the $796 zone, which is where two Fib retracement lines lay in the the same vicinity. A $RUT above $800 would depress poor old Tim mightily.
Just a short ideas to ponder today. CRS on the short side.
MCD also on the short side, with puts being attractive for you option players.
NBL, with a nice RSI signal and a potential double top, another short idea.
PICO, mentioned here a couple of times already, is having a nice run up. (Happily, this was one of my rare bullish suggestions).
I'm more animated and interesting where there's dynamism in the market. Particularly on the downside. Try me again tomorrow. The market muse may have smiled upon me by then. In the meantime, I'd like you to enjoy the adventures of.....Stedman!
',1)">
at3/12/200714 insightful comments
Links to this postLabels:crs,mcd,nbl,pico
Friday, March 09, 2007
Stalemate
In yesterday's post, I laid out bullish and bearish arguments for the market, since we seem to be in one of those awful stand-offs between the bulls and bears. Today played out in precisely that manner.
The widely-anticipated jobs report came out. The results were interpreted as bullish. The markets zoomed higher at the opening bell. Fibonacci retracements were touched all over the place, and then the market started to soften fast. It went negative. Then positive. Then negative. Then positive. And finally ended with about 1/4th of the gain it had at its high point. Just ridiculous.
I'm 100% in puts and shorts right now. Below are my positions. Boldfaced items are puts.
Here's the Dow 30. You can see it bounces off that Fib beautifully.
And here's the Russell. For the second day in a row, it bounced off the fib. It actually managed to sneak across the line a little, but not for long.
The $SPX is pretty similar to the $INDU.
I've got a couple of long suggestions. Here's Bowater (BOW):
And, and even better one, Pico Holdings (PICO), which has the advantage of a big volume surge recently.
A few short ideas. BBD seems to have retraced within the Fib retracement nicely.
MS, like a lot of other investment banks, has likely retraced to an area where I think it doesn't have the strength to climb any higher.
Microstrategy (MSTR) blew me out a couple of weeks ago, but it was a one-day fake out. This one looks weak.
Options on the QQQQs have the advantage of being penny-priced, which is much more fair to traders.
Reynolds (RAI) is retracing back to its broken dome pattern. I also have puts on another aluminum stock, symbol AL, but the chart isn't as pretty.
Lastly, symbol RYAAY looks like a low risk/high reward short candidate.
My kids have given me some kind of bug, so I'm typing this with the chills. Even though it is 70 degrees outside, I'm going to go sit in front of the fire! Have a good weekend!
at3/09/200730 insightful comments
Links to this postLabels:bbd,bow,msft,mstr,pico,qqqq,rai,ryaay
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