分析：中国“先下手为强控通胀”China: the long-awaited Xmas gift

China’s decision to raise interest rates on Christmas Day has given investors time to digest the news without rushing into action. Even when trading resumes on Monday, it is likely to be quiet, with the last week of the year traditionally a time for low volumes and subdued price movements.

中国决定在圣诞节这天加息，让投资者有时间消化这一消息，不必匆忙采取行动。这样，即便周一交易恢复后，市场也很可能会平静以对，因为新的一周将是今年最后一周，传统上交易清淡、价格波动不大。

The 25 basis point increase in lending rates to 5.81 per cent was widely expected, after Beijing officials repeatedly signalled their concerns about possible over-heating in the property market and growing inflationary pressures.

中国央行将一年期贷款利率调高25个基点，达到5.81%。这一行动已在市场广泛预期之中。此前中国官员已一再表示，他们对房地产市场可能出现过热以及通胀压力日益加大感到担心。

The People’s Bank of China raised rates in October, for the first time in three years, and has increased six times this year the ratios of deposits banks must deposit at the central bank. Economists expect further tightening in the New Year – of up to 100 basis points through 2011 as the authorities grapple with inflation, especially politically-sensitive food price inflation.

今年10月，中国央行三年来首次上调了利率，而且今年迄今已连续6次上调存款准备金率。经济学家们预计，新的一年里中国还将出台更多紧缩措施，2011年全年利率将上调至多100个基点，因为当局将竭力抑制通胀、特别是具有政治敏感性的食品价格上涨。

As Jamil Anderlini reports from Beijing for the FT, the latest consumer inflation figures – for November – showed the annual rate rising to 5.1 per cent, up from 4.4 per cent a month earlier. Food price inflation was 11.7 per cent.

英国《金融时报》记者吉密欧(Jamil Anderlini)报道称，最新的（11月）居民消费价格(CPI)数据表明，中国的年化通胀率已达5.1%，高于此前一个月的4.4%。食品价格同期上涨了11.7%。

“This rate hike demonstrates the Chinese authorities’ determination to keep inflation under control up front, or front-loaded tightening,” said Wang Qing, China economist at Morgan Stanley, according to Anderlini.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)中国经济学家王庆说：“这次升息显示出中国官方先下手为强控制通胀的决心。”

“The stronger than originally expected outlook for the US economy after the extension of [the] Bush tax cuts should also help remove some concerns about the potential weakness in external demand and make Chinese authorities more likely to tighten earlier and more aggressively, in our view.”

“在我们看来，布什减税政策被延期后，美国经济前景好于预期，应该可以减少人们对外部需求疲弱的担心，让中国政府可以更早、更积极地收紧银根。”

So expect more well-signalled hikes next year.

因此，预计明年中国将有更多次信号明确的加息。