人类思维的10大通病

作者：Nikki

The human mind is a wonderful thing. Cognition, the act or process of thinking, enables us to process vast amounts of information quickly. For example, every time your eyes are open, you brain is constantly being bombarded with stimuli. You may be consciously thinking about one specific thing, but you brain is processing thousands of subconscious ideas. Unfortunately, our cognition is not perfect, and there are certain judgment errors that we are prone to making, known in the field of psychology as cognitive biases. They happen to everybody regardless of age, gender, education, intelligence, or other factors. Some of them are well known, others not, but all of them are interesting. I am sure everyone will find that one has happened to them, (I myself have been prone to several) and now will recognize when they are making an error in the future.

人类思维非常奇妙。思考的过程被称为认知。凭借认知能力，我们可以快速处理大量信息。比如，每天从睁开你的眼睛起，你的头脑中就有各种想法不停地闪现。也许你在下意识地思考一件事情，但是（在此期间）你的大脑却在潜意识地处理成千上万的信息。遗憾的是，我们的认知能力并不完美。（在认知过程中，）我们容易犯一些错误。这些错误可能发生在每个人身上，无论其年龄、性别、受教育程度、智力，或其他因素。其中一些是广为人知的，有一些则不为人知；不过这些错误都很有趣。其中，我相信每人都可以找到自身曾经历的那个，（我自己就囊括几个）。在今后的生活中，我们可以此为对照，检查自己是否犯错。

10 Gambler’s Fallacy

10 赌徒谬论

The Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, they are not. Certain probabilities, such as getting a heads when you flip a (fair) coin, are always the same. The probability of getting a heads is 50%, it does not matter if you’ve gotten tails the last 10 flips. Thinking that the probabilities have changed is a common bias, especially when gambling. For example, I am playing roulette. The last four spins have landed on black, it has to be red this time right? Wrong! The probability of landing on red is still 47.37% (18 red spots divided by 38 total spots). This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many a gambler to lose money thinking the probabilities have changed.

赌徒谬论，即人们容易认为未来事件的发生几率受既往事情的影响而改变。而实际不然。有些事件的几率，比如掷硬币得到头像面（正面）的几率总是不变的。即使你已经连续10次得到反面，下一次你得到正面的几率还是50%。人们普遍以为未来事件的几率已经改变了，尤其在赌博当中，这是一种偏见。譬如，玩轮盘赌。前三轮，胜注停在黑格子。接下来一轮，胜注得停在红格子了？错！胜注停在红格子的几率仍然是47.37%（红格子数（18）÷格子总数（38））。这个道理听来很明显，但是这种偏见致使很多赌博者认为转机即将出现，结果却输钱。

9 Reactivity

9 反应度

Reactivity is the tendency of people to act or appear differently when they know that they are being observed. In the 1920s, Hawthorne Works (a manufacturing facility) commissioned a study to see if different levels of light influenced worker productivity. What they found was incredible, changing the light caused productivity to soar! Unfortunately, when the study was finished, productivity levels decreased to their regular levels. This was because the change in productivity was not due to the light levels, but to the workers being watched. This demonstrated a form of reactivity; when individuals know they are being watched, they are motivated to change their behavior, generally to make themselves look better. Reactivity is a serious problem in research, and has to be controlled in blind experiments (“Blind” is when individuals involved in a research study are purposely withheld information so as not to influence the outcomes).

反应度指当人们知道有人在观察其活动时，他们喜欢做出不同于平常的举动。十九世纪二十年代，Hawthorne Works（霍桑制造厂）开展了一项研究:证明照明条件是否影响工人的生产效率。该厂的研究结果让人难以置信：改善照明条件条件竟然使生产效率飙升！不巧的是，研究结束后，该厂生产效率降低到正常水平。原因是: 生产效率的变化不是由照明条件的改变引起的，而是因为有人观察工人们工作的缘故。这里证明了反应度的一种表现形式：当人们知道有人在观察其活动时，他们受到激励而改变行为，一般来说会表现得更出色。反应度是（各项）研究当中面临的一大难题，只有采取单盲（或双盲）实验方法才能控制其不利影响。单盲实验指：对接受实验者隐瞒某些信息，以便实验结果不受影响。双盲指接受实验者及实验组织者对某些信息均不知情。

8 Pareidolia

8 幻觉

Pareidolia is when random images or sounds are perceived as significant. Seeing clouds in the shapes of dinosaurs, Jesus on a hot pocket, or hearing messages when a record is played backward are common examples of pareidolia. The common element is that the stimulus is neutral, it does not have intentional meaning; the meaning is in the viewer’s perception.

此处幻觉意为把随意的图像或声音视为有意义的对象。看见云彩像恐龙，骑在火袋上的耶稣，或者后退唱片时听到某种信号，这些都是产生幻觉的例子。（看到或听到）的对象通常没有特定含义；观察者却可能设想出某种含义。

Interesting Fact: the Rorschach Inkblot test was developed to use pareidolia to tap into people’s mental states. Testees are shown images of ambiguous pictures, and asked to describe what they see. Responses are analyzed to discover the testee’s hidden thoughts.

有趣的事实：Rorschach Inkblot test（罗夏克墨迹实验）借用幻觉来探究人们的精神活动。让接受实验者观察一些模糊的图片，然后叫他们描述他们的所见。通过分析其回答可发现他们的潜在想法。

7 Self-fulfilling Prophecy

7 自我兑现预言

Self-fulfilling prophecy is engaging in behaviors that obtain results that confirm existing attitudes. A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to become true. For example, I believe that I am going to do poorly in school, so I decrease the effort I put into my assignments and studying, and I end up doing poorly, just as I thought. Another common example is relationships; I think my relationship with my significant other is going to fail, so I start acting differently, pulling away emotionally. Because of my actions, I actually cause the relationship to fail. This is a powerful tool used by “psychics” – they implant an idea in your mind, and you eventually make it happen because you think it will.

自我兑现预言指：自身行为取得证实已有态度的结果。自我兑现的预言促成它本身的实现。例如，我相信我学习成绩不会有起色，所以我在作业及各项学习中投入的精力减少，结果正如我所料——学习果然很差。另外一例是关于恋爱的。我认为我跟对象的关系维持不久了，因此我做出反常举动，感情上疏远对方。因为我的行为，我真地毁掉了这段恋情。这是心理战术者常用的有力工具。他们给你灌输一种想法，如果你认为事情的发生将会遵循这种想法，你最终将促成它的实现。

Interesting Fact: Economic Recessions are self-fulfilling prophecies. Because a recession is 2 quarters of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decline, you cannot know you are in a recession until you are at least 6 months into one. Unfortunately, at the first sign of decreasing GDP, the media reports a possible recession, people panic and start a chain of events that actually cause a recession.

有趣的事实：经济衰退是自我兑现的预言。经济衰退的衡量方式是：连续两个季度，国民生产总值（GDP）下降。（从GDP开始下降算起）只有等到6个月后，你才能知道经济衰退是否发生。不幸的是，一看到GDP下降，媒体就预测经济衰退。人们因此恐慌，引发一系列连锁反应，最终导致真正的经济衰退。

6 Halo effect

6 光环效应

The Halo effect is the tendency for an individual’s positive or negative trait to “spill over” to other areas of their personality in others’ perceptions of them. This bias happens a lot in employee performance appraisals. For example: my employee, Biff, has been late to work the past three days; I notice this and conclude that Biff is lazy and does not care about his job. There are many possible reasons why Biff was late, perhaps his car broke down, his babysitter did not show up, or there has been bad weather. The problem is, because of one negative aspect that may be out of Biff’s control, I assume that he is a bad worker.

光环效应即在对某人的评价中，人们喜欢把此人的某种积极或消极的特点推及他性格的其它方面。这种偏见在评价员工绩效时经常出现。例如，我的员工Biff（比夫），最近三天老是迟到。我发现后，总结出：Biff（比夫）很懒，不关心工作。Biff（比夫）迟到可能有很多原因，也许他的汽车坏了，保姆没赶来，或者因为天气不好。但问题是：也许因为某个Biff（比夫）无法控制的因素，我看到了他的一次消极表现，从而推断他是一个差劲的员工。

Interesting Fact: The Physical Attractiveness Stereotype is when people assume that attractive individuals possess other socially desirable qualities, such as happiness, success and intelligence. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy when attractive people are given privileged treatment such as better job opportunities and higher salaries.

有趣的事实：外貌偏见。即人们推测外貌漂亮的人具有良好的社会素质，比如幸福感，成功和智慧。外貌漂亮的人因此获得特殊待遇，如更好的工作机会，更高的薪酬。所以，这种推测成为自我兑现的预言。

5 Herd Mentality

5 合群心态

（美国20世纪八十年代的年轻人）

（摘自wikipedia:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mullet_(haircut)，译者补充)

（mullet:披肩长发，前额、两侧短，后侧长）

（摘自wikipedia:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mullet_(haircut)，译者补充)

Herd mentality is the tendency to adopt the opinions and follow the behaviors of the majority to feel safer and to avoid conflict. Also known as “Mob Mentality,” this is, at its most common form, peer pressure. Herd mentality explains why fads get so popular. Clothes, cars, hobbies, styles, all it takes is a group of people who think something is cool, and it catches on.

合群心态：为了避免可能的冲突，人们倾向于接受多数人的意见，追随多数人的行为。它也被称为“大众心态，”即最普遍的形式，同伴压力。合群心态可解释时尚何以形成。服装，汽车，爱好，风格，只需一群人认为它们很酷，这些就会风行一时。

Interesting Fact: things that are unattractive, or that would never seem cool or popular now have had huge followings due to herd mentality. Examples include parachute pants, pet rocks, mullets, cone bras, tie-dye, sea monkeys, and the 1980s (by the way, that is an ’80s guy in the picture above).

有趣的事实：由于合群心态的存在，现在看来外表丑陋，一点也不酷，或者认为压根都不会流行的事物，一度招来多少追随者。例如跳伞库（尼龙面料，裤筒肥大——译者注），宠物石，披肩长发（如上图示——译者补充），锥形胸罩，塑料编织衣饰，水晶缸宠物，以及20世纪八十年代的年轻人（见上图）。

4 Reactance

4 叛逆性

Reactance is the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice. This is common with rebellious teenagers, but any attempt to resist authority due to perceived threats to freedom and/or choice is reactance. The individual may not have a need to do the specific behavior, however the fact that they cannot do it makes them want to.

当你认为他人的主张可能限制你选择自由时，出于反抗的本能，你可能逆其主张而行。这种行为对于叛逆性强的十来岁小孩非常普遍。对可能威胁自由或选择权的政策采取的一切反对措施都可称为叛逆。个人可能并没有必要作出某种行为，但是如果禁止这种行为，他往往产生这样做的冲动。

Interesting Fact: “reverse psychology” is an attempt to influence people using reactance. Tell someone (particularly children) to do the opposite of what you really want, and they will rebel and actually end up doing what you want.

有趣的事实：“逆反心理术”是运用叛逆性影响他人的一种措施。如果你想让某人（尤其是小孩）按某种方式做事，可以教导他另一种截然相反的方式。他会产生叛逆，结果以你期待的方式做事。

3 Hyperbolic Discounting

3 超级折扣

Hyperbolic discounting is the tendency for people to prefer a smaller, immediate payoff over a larger, delayed payoff. Much research has been done on decision-making, and many factors contribute to the individual decision making process. Interestingly, delay time is a big factor in choosing an alternative. Put simply, most people would choose to get 20 dollars today instead of getting 100 dollars one year from today. Normally it makes sense to choose a greater amount of money immediately than less in the future, as the value of a dollar is worth more today than it is tomorrow. Assume that the interest rate is 9%, at this interest rate, a rational person would be indifferent to taking $91.74 now, or $100 a year from now. However, it is interesting how much less we are willing to take immediately rather than wait, would you rather have $100 a year from now, or $50 immediately? How about $40 immediately? Where do you draw the line?

超级折扣：与一项更大，但迟到的回报相比，人们更喜欢小点，但马上兑现的回报。人们对如何决策已经做了很多研究，发现个人的决策过程与很多因素有关。有趣的是，延迟时间是作出选择时考虑的一个重大因素。简而言之，大多数人宁愿今天要20美元，也不愿意选择一年之后的100美元。对于立即兑现且数额更多的资金以及尚需等待且数额更少的资金，通常人们会选择前者，这是有道理的。因为今天的美元比明天更值钱。假设年利率是9%，按此利率计算，现在的91.74美元一年后可增加到100美元，但是理智者是不会为此差额心动的。然而，可以观察到一个有趣现象：人们不喜欢等待，因此愿意接受一个立即兑现但少很多的价额。一年后你可以拿100美元，现在可以拿50美元，你作何选择？现在拿40美元呢？你如何界定？

2 Escalation of Commitment

2 追加投入

Escalation of commitment is the tendency for people to continue to support previously unsuccessful endeavors. With all the decisions people have to make, it is unavoidable that some will be unsuccessful. Of course, the logical thing to do in these instances is to change that decision or try to reverse it. However, sometimes individuals feel compelled not only to stick with their decision, but also to further invest in that decision because they have sunk costs. For example, say you use half of your life savings to start a business. After 6 months, it is evident that the business is going to be unsuccessful. The logical thing to do would be to “cut your losses” and drop the business. However, due to the sunk costs of your life savings, you feel committed to the business and invest even more money into the project hoping that the additional cash will turn the business around.

追加投入：人们喜欢继续支持之前没有成功的计划。人们难免碰到失败后再决策的时刻。当然，此时理智的行为应该是改变原策略，或者掉转决策方向。但是，有时人们强烈感觉不仅应该坚持他们的决定，而且考虑到业已损失的成本，应该对该决定追加投入。比如，你用半生积蓄创业开办一家公司。6个月后，这个公司明显难以维持。理智的作为应该是“阻止亏本”，放弃目前的生意。但是，由于你已经付出了生平积蓄，你感觉自己与公司已经密不可分，对原来生意追加更多投资，期望额外的投入可使公司起死回生。

1 Placebo Effect

1 安慰剂效应

The Placebo effect is when an ineffectual substance that is believed to have healing properties produces the desired effect. Especially common with medications, the placebo effect has been observed when individuals given a sugar pill for a real ailment report improvement. Placebos are still a scientific mystery. It is theorized that placebos cause an “Expectancy Effect”, (In cases of uncertainty, expectation is what is most likely to happen) individuals expect the pills to cure their ailments, so they feel cured. However, this does not explain how the ineffectual pills actually cause a reduction in symptoms.

安慰剂效应：一种无实际疗效的药物，由于人们相信它有某种治疗功效，它产生了人们期望的疗效。尤其在药物学领域，人们观察到安慰剂效应：给患某种疾病的病人服用安慰药片，结果对该疾病有所改善。安慰剂仍然是科学谜团。有关于安慰剂产生“预期效果”的理论阐述，（在不确定的情况下，人们很有可能产生各种期望），即人们期望药片治愈他们的疾病，所以心理上感觉治好了。然而，这种理论没有解释无实际疗效的药物为什么能实际上减轻病症。

Interesting Fact: The term “Placebo” is used when the outcomes are considered favorable, when the outcomes are negative or harmful; the term is “Nocebo”

有趣的事实：如果得到积极效果，通常使用“安慰剂”这个词。而如果效果消极或者有害时，可用“反安慰剂”词语。