美联储前主席：国际合作没前途

美联储前主席：国际合作没前途Volcker Skeptical on Cooperation Ahead of G20 曾 任美联储(Federal Reserve)主席的沃尔克(Paul Volcker)对旨在提振世界经济的国际合作做出了悲观的判断，理由是美国和其他国家内部政治上的“不满”使各国更难实现合作。
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker offered a downbeat assessment of international cooperation aimed at bolstering the world economy, pointing to domestic political 'frustration' in the U.S. and other countries that is making it harder for them to work together.

周二，在20国集团(G20)峰会本周于韩国开幕的前夕，沃尔克在北京说，美国国内存在非常多的不满，其反映就是刚刚过去的中期选举。他说，与此同时，美联储刺激美国经济的最新尝试最近在国际上引起的批评声浪，也折射出中国和其他国家的不满情绪。'There is a very large amount of frustration in the U.S., reflected in that little election we just had,' Volcker said today in Beijing ahead of a meeting of the Group of 20 major economies in Seoul this week. At the same time, the recent wave of international criticismof the Federal Reserve's latest attempt to stimulate the U.S. economy 'reflects the frustration in this part of the world and elsewhere,' he said.

Associated Press 美联储前主席沃尔克他说，要最终解除这些担忧，就需要做一些事情。这些话是他在中国国际金融论坛(International Finance Forum)的一次会议上说的。国际金融论坛总部位于北京，沃尔克受邀担任它的共同主席。
'Something needs to be done to achieve accommodation of these concerns over time,' he said, in remarks made to a meeting of the International Finance Forum, a Beijing-based talking shop he was invited to co-chair.


至于怎样化解其他国家对美联储债券购买计划的担忧，沃尔克没有给出具体建议。中国和其他国家的官员曾说，美联储这个计划有可能在他们的经济体中加剧通货膨胀、生成资产泡沫。
Volcker didn't offer a concrete recommendation for how to address other countries' concerns about the Fed's bond-buying program, which officials in China and elsewhere have said threatens to push up inflation and create asset bubbles in their economies.


中国央行上个月加息，监管机构已采取措施收紧本已严格的资本流入管制。
China's central bank raised interest rates last month, and regulators have moved to tighten the nation's already strict controls on capital inflows.


沃尔克说，国际上对美联储的计划不满，根源在于世界经济仍旧存在的失衡。他说，失衡问题在危机以前就存在，但还没有得到根本解决。他问，新兴市场增长势头甚猛，但它是否具有那种可持续的平衡性？另一方面，则是“美国经济无法生产我们进入新10年时必须具备的储蓄、投资和出口竞争力”。
The former central banker said international frustrations over the Fed's plans are rooted in continued imbalances in the world economy â ' issues he said were present before the crisis but have yet to be fundamentally resolved. 'The emerging world has great momentum for growth, but does that have the kind of balance that is sustainable?' he asked. On the other side of the coin, he pointed to what he called 'America's inability to produce the savings, investment and export competitiveness that is necessary as we enter a new decade.'


沃尔克有时候作为白宫经济复苏顾问委员会(Economic Recovery Advisory Board)主席为美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)提供咨询。他说，美国需要继续努力，最终改善政府财政，而中国则需要提高国内需求。
Volcker, an occasional adviser to President Barack Obama as Chairman of the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said the U.S. needs to continue to work on improving its government finances over time, while China needs to boost domestic demand.

他指出，中国下一个五年规划将重点放在扩大消费，但他说这些措施需要很长时间才能取得成果。他说，为了维持对世界经济的信心，很重要的一点就是要证明我们正向那些建设性的方向共同前进。
He noted that China's next five-year planis focused on increasing consumption, but said those measures will take years to come to fruition. 'To maintain confidence in the world economy, it's important that there be evidence we are moving together in those constructive directions.'

沃尔克指出，全球经济不景气和对美联储最新政策的不满还激起了新的兴趣，即重新思考目前以美元为基础的国际货币秩序。这位83岁的经济学家指出，自1971年布雷顿森林体系的固定汇率制瓦解后，几十年来从未对货币体系进行如此郑重的讨论。

Volcker noted that the woes of the global economy and the discomfort with the Fed's latest policies have also prompted new interestin rethinking the current dollar-based international monetary order. The 83-year-old economist noted that such discussions haven't been so prominent in decades -- not since the 1971 collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates.

他说，过去几十年一直采用市场化浮动汇率制，但由于货币价值的剧烈波动，以及该系统未能消除全球经济不平衡，对该系统的信心正在逐渐被侵蚀。以美元作为主要国际货币的做法似乎也未取得预期效果。
The confidence in floating, market-determined exchange rates that characterized past decades has been eroded by the huge swings in currency values, and by that system's failure to eradicate imbalances in the global economy, he said. And the reliance on the U.S. dollar as the main international currency doesn't seem to have worked out well.

沃尔克说，中国积累2.5万亿美元如此大规模的外汇储备没有意义，对美国来说，这么多国家持有如此多的美元是毫无意义的。
'We can't say it made any sense at all for China to acquire $2.5 trillion of reserves,' Volcker said, while for the U.S., 'it doesn't make any sense for us to have the dollar so extended to so many people.'

他认为理性的解决方法应该是：全球化的金融系统迫切需要一个世界性货币。
He made clear what he thinks the logical solution should be: 'A globalized financial system cries out in my view for a global currency.'

但他说，目前还没有一个“令人信服的”计划来达到这个目标。他说，有一点很清楚，即解决这个问题需要各国齐心协力，尽管各国面临的国内政治压力反对以合作的形式进行参与。
But he said there is not yet a 'plausible' road map for achieving that goal. The one thing that is clear, he said, is that the problems needs to be addressed by several countries working together -- 'despite domestic political pressures that argue against participation in a cooperative process.'


沃尔克说，没有某种世界货币协议，世界似乎越来越有可能逐渐分裂成不同的货币区域：欧洲形成欧元区，亚洲以人民币为主，美洲形成美元区。
In the absence of some kind of global currency agreement, Volcker said, it seems increasingly likely that the world will gradually divide into currency zones: Europe with its euro, an Asia dominated by China's yuan and the dollar in the Americas.

他说，我们真的想要一个各自决裂的世界，各个区域有可能产生摩擦的世界，而不是一个和谐的联合体系吗？ 如果我们无法一致地显示出达成和谐协议的决心，建成令人满意的世界经济秩序的可能性将十分渺茫。
'Do we really want a world falling into well-defined regions, with potential for friction among those regions, instead of a harmonious joint system?' he said. 'If we can't show the way together to a harmonious agreement among us, prospects for a satisfactory arrangement of the world economic system are poor.'

Andrew Batson

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