APEC财长集体抨击美国货币政策

在即将于韩国举行的20国集团(G20)峰会上，美国财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)打算劝诱出口型国家限制它们的经常项目盈余，但他在周末与亚太经济合作组织(APEC)财政部长们会面时却遭遇不顺。APEC财长们说，华盛顿的货币政策正造成过多资金涌入他们的经济体。

亚太地区的财长们抱怨说，由于投资者追寻更高的收益，美联储(Federal Reserve)的大规模宽松政策已经导致他们所在国家资本流入大增，有可能生成资产泡沫，并加大通胀压力。

此时，盖特纳正力图让各国同意限制贸易顺差和逆差，从而安抚混乱的外汇市场，避免发生贸易战。

从盖特纳在APEC论坛上会晤亚太地区财长之初获得的这种待遇来看，接下来G20峰会的议程不会是一帆风顺。不过从记者对数位财长的采访来看，一项妥协方案正在浮出水面。

美国方面希望本周G20首尔峰会期间各工业化和发展中国家能够签署一项协议。这种策略的目的是为了遏制日益高涨的保护主义，而在促使中国允许人民币更快升值方面，这也是争议性较小的一种办法。人民币升值对于北京来说是一个敏感议题。

盖特纳在APEC会议的非正式场合同东南亚国家联盟(Association of Southeast Asian Nations，简称东盟)成员会面，据部分在场的人士讲，多位财政官员对美联储的货币宽松措施表达了他们的观点。

菲律宾财政部长普里西马(Cesar Purisima)说，东盟国家在这次APEC会议上表达了它们对汇率问题和美国宽松货币政策影响的担忧。泰国财政部长柯恩(Korn Chatikavanij)早前接受采访说，美国货币政策导致的大量资金流入很有可能损害泰国经济。他说，这些资金需要找到归宿，并且很可能要在我们的市场、我们的经济中寻找归宿；而大型经济体强制进行调整的速度和方式让人担忧。

盖特纳在回应时强调，美国经济的强劲增长对于全球经济至关重要，资金流入在很多方面对于新兴经济体而言都是“非常正面”的。他说，其中有风险也有挑战，但相比过去三年面临的任何一种挑战，多数国家会愿意接受现在的这些挑战。

这一论断也不是没有得到那些严重依赖美国消费者的国家的认可，就连率领中国代表团参加会议的中国财政部副部长王军也表达了一定程度的支持。他在会议闭幕时的记者会上说，美国的定量宽松政策将提振美国国内经济，这反过来将会对全球其它地区的经济产生重要影响。

在贸易失衡的问题上，盖特纳同样也听到了对于减少经常项目盈余的定量化目标这一想法的反对之声。东盟成员国在一份草拟的信件中说，东盟担心对经常项目的具体针对将导致采取可能有损于自由贸易原则的措施。

作为主要出口国的日本也对设定数字化目标表示了反对。日本首相菅直人(Naoto Kan)在上周六的一次采访中说，我们需要进一步讨论为贸易平衡在GDP中所占比例设定限制是否适宜，因为有多种因素会对贸易平衡产生影响。他还说，他不一定认为这是适宜的。

到目前为止，盖特纳似乎愿意承受这种批评，如果这意味着他能说服中国减小庞大贸易顺差的话。

与此同时，美国似乎给出了一些说法。美国财政部官员上周说，美国打算推动各国签订具体的指导原则，该原则将为帐户承担额和国际货币基金组织(IMF)的监督提供基础。盖特纳则采取了较为温和的立场，他在APEC会议后说，不应期望能在领导人峰会上达成具体的目标。

盖特纳说，这不是一件你轻轻松松就能缩小到某个数字的事。他说，在当前这个时期它是人们不愿意的，也是不必要，不大可能的。盖特纳还对东盟成员国说，实施经常项目政策时应该具备一定的灵活性，尊重各个国家的情况。

这一言论表明，美国开始考虑东盟的观点，即任何政策对于有着不同经济结构的国家来说都是敏感的。新加坡和泰国的经常项目盈余尤其高。

会议逐渐达成共识对于日本财务大臣野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)来说是个好消息，这位会议的主办者希望在时下地区关系充满紧张气氛之际看到一个满意的结果──尤其是因天然气开采、领土争端和担忧中国稀土供应而引起的紧张气氛。

Ian Talley / P.R. Venkat

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 APEC Finance Chiefs Caution US U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, heading to a G-20 summit in South Korea to cajole exporting countries into limiting their current-account surpluses, encountered some headwinds at a weekend meeting of APEC finance ministers who said that Washington's monetary policy is flooding their economies with too much cash.

Finance ministers from around the region complained that large-scale easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve has brought a surge of capital flows into their countries as investors look for higher yields, creating potential asset bubbles and stoking inflationary pressure.

The comments come as Mr. Geithner tries to calm roiled currency markets and avert a trade war by getting countries to sign up to limit trade surpluses and deficits.

The initial reception at the meeting of his counterparts in the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum suggested that agenda at the coming world leaders summit wouldn't all be smooth sailing, though interviews with a number of finance ministers suggested a compromise was emerging.

The U.S. is hoping to get a deal signed this week in Seoul at a summit of the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations. The strategy is designed to counter growing protectionism and is a less controversial way of leveraging China to allow a faster pace of yuan appreciation, a sensitive issue for Beijing.

In a meeting with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on the sidelines of the APEC meeting, Mr. Geithner heard opinions from a number of finance officials about the Fed's easing, according to some of those present.

Philippines Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima said Asean nations voiced their fears over currency and the impact of monetary easing at the APEC meeting. Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said in an earlier interview that the resulting influx of cash threatened to harm his economy. 'The money has to find a home, and the chances are it will seek a home in our markets and our economies,' Mr. Korn said. 'But the speed and the manner in which large economies are forcing adjustments is a concern.'

In response, Mr. Geithner stressed that strong U.S. growth is critical to the global economy. He said the capital flows are in many respects 'very positive' for emerging economies. 'There are risks and challenges with that, but most countries would trade those challenges for any of the challenges that we've faced over the last three years.'

The argument isn't lost on countries that largely depend on the American consumer, with even the Chinese vice finance minister who headed a delegation from Beijing expressing some support. 'The U.S. quantitative easing will boost its domestic economy, which in turn will have an important effect on the rest of the global economy,' Vice Finance Minister Wang Jun said at the closing news conference.

On the issue of trade imbalances, Mr. Geithner likewise saw opposition to the idea of quantifying goals for reduction. 'Asean has concerns that specific targeting of the current account could lead to measures being employed that may be detrimental to the principle of free trade,' group members said in a draft position letter.

Japan, itself a major exporter, has also expressed opposition to numerical targets. In an interview Saturday, Japan Prime Minister Naoto Kan said that 'we need to have more discussion on whether it's appropriate to set ceilings and floors for trade balances as percentages of GDP, as numerous factors affect trade balances,' adding that 'I don't necessarily think it's appropriate.'

So far, Mr. Geithner has appeared to be willing to withstand the criticism if it means he can successfully nudge China to lower its massive trade surplus.

At the same time, the U.S. appeared to give some ground. U.S. Treasury officials had said last week the U.S. planned to push countries for 'concrete guidelines' that would provide the basis for account commitments and monitoring by the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Geithner took a somewhat softer line, saying after the APEC meeting that specific targets shouldn't be expected at the leaders' summit.

'It's not something you can reduce easily to a single number,' Mr. Geithner said. 'It's not desirable, necessary and it's not likely at this stage.' Mr. Geithner also told Asean members that current-account policies should be implemented 'with flexibility to respect individual countries' circumstances.'

The language suggested the U.S. took into consideration Asean's view that any policy would be sensitive to countries with 'differing economic structures.' Singapore and Thailand have especially high current-account surpluses.

The emerging consensus at the meeting was good news for Japan Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who headed the event and wanted to see a smooth outcome amid a time of regional tension -- in particular over gas exploration, territorial disputes, and concerns over China's supplies of rare-earth minerals.

Ian Talley / P.R. Venkat