【福布斯】中国经济面临三大危险

【福布斯】中国经济面临三大危险

Change to the value of the renminbi is one of them.

人民币价值重估是其中之一

Last week I met with the president of one of our client companies, one of the world's largest furniture businesses. The president is a real salt-of-the-earth guy. He lives in America's heartland and is the kind of fine gentleman you see on the sidelines of your children's Little League games cheering on the kids.

上周我会见了我们客户公司的负责人，这家公司是世界上最大家具公司之一。公司总经理是真正的社会中坚。他居住于美国中心地区，属于那种你在少年棒球联赛上看到坐在一旁为孩子们喝彩加油的成功男士，时刻散发着绅士特有的气质。

He's the kind of American patriot who displays an American flag on his porch, supports our men and women who fight for our freedom, and drives a Ford pick-up truck. He is not a vampire banker from Goldman Sachs ( GS - news - people ) or a greed-driven hedge fund manager seeking profits at any cost. He gives you a firm handshake and looks you squarely in the eye when talking.

We were sitting in my office overlooking Shanghai's financial district one smoggy day. I asked him what he thought about Congress pushing for appreciation of China's currency, the renminbi, or yuan. His immediate answer: "It would be the worst thing for my company." (His company is 100% owned by Americans, by the way.) First, he said, an appreciating renminbi cuts into his company's profits, which lowers bonuses, salaries and dividends for employees in the U.S. Why would anyone want to lower the profits of American companies during a financial crisis?

上海雾霭的一天，我们坐在办公室里，俯瞰着上海金融区。我问他怎么看国会推动中国人民币升值，他立即回答：对我的公司来说，这是最坏的事情。（顺便说一下，他的公司100%属于美国）首先，他继续说道，人民币升值势必减少公司的利润，降低美国人的奖金、薪水和股息。那么为什么人们还想着在金融危机期间减少自己的收益呢？

Second, an appreciating renminbi also would not save American jobs, he argued: "That saving American jobs argument is ridiculous." Companies would "transfer production to lower-cost places like Vietnam or Indonesia. There is no way companies will shift back to the United States." The shift to lower-cost production areas has already begun happening as labor and real estate costs have risen in China. Nike ( NKE - news - people ) and Adidas ( ADDDY.PK - news - people ) have started relocating their sneaker factories to Indonesia.

其次，人民币升值也不可能挽回美国的工作机会。他说：人民币升值能增加美国就业是可笑的。公司应该把生产线转移越南或者印度尼西亚这样制造成本低的地方，返回美国将是没有出路的。伴随着中国劳动力和不动产的上涨，生产线向低成本国家转移的趋势已经开始。耐克和阿迪达斯开始把运动鞋工厂搬往印度尼西亚。

My firm, the China Market Research Group, interviewed executives at a hundred big American multinationals operating in China to see if they wanted the renminbi to appreciate. The results might surprise some. The vast majority said they didn't want the currency to rise too much, because that would cut into their profits. Like my client, they said that in that case they would either shift production to lower-cost countries or stay in China but pass their increased costs on to American consumers.

我的公司，中国市场研究集团采访了近百个在中国经营的美国跨国公司管理人员，询问他们对于人民币升值的看法。结果有些出人意料。其中大多数表示，不愿意看见人民币的大幅升值，那样会损害他们的利润。像我的客户，他们说，出于利润的考虑，要么搬迁至低成本国家，要么继续留在中国，然后把增加的成本转移到美国消费者身上。

The next time you hear someone in Congress push to appreciate the renminbi, ask them why they would want to make prices higher for everyday Americans at Wal-Mart ( WMT - news - people ) and take away profits for American workers when they need it most. That endangers America's economy as well as China's.

下次你再听见国会试图推动人民币升值的时候，代我向他们问一下，为什么他们希望沃尔玛的产品价格更贵？为什么当美国人想要更多薪水时，他们要拿走利润？人民币升值在损害中国的同时，也会损害美国。

There are two other big dangers facing China's economy.

同时，中国经济还面临着另外两种危险。

First, we may be about to enter a period of trade wars that could severely hurt China's exporters. In the run-up to the midterm November elections, the only thing Democrats and Republicans can seem to agree on is to scapegoat China for all of America's economic ills. Ads aired in favor of Ohio representative Zack Space accuse his Republican opponent, Bob Gibbs, of sending Ohioans' jobs to China. In an ad featuring the ominous image of Chairman Mao, Spike Maynard, a Republican challenger for Congress in West Virginia, charges that incumbent Nick Rahall supported a bill that created wind-turbine manufacturing jobs in China instead of at home.

一个就是，我们一旦决定进入贸易战，将会严重伤害出口商。面对即将到来的十一月份美国中期选举，民主党和共和党有可能达成一项协议，把中国作为美国经济病症的替罪羊。在俄亥俄州代表斯佩斯的广告中，他指责他的共和党对手，称其把俄亥俄州的就业机会都给了中国。广告中突出表现了毛泽东不祥的形象。梅奈尔德，一位在西弗吉尼亚向国会挑战的共和党人，指责尼克拉霍尔，对在中国创造风力涡轮机制造工作的企业给予资金支持，反而不是在美国。

Many observers say that a trade war is not in the interests of anyone and the world's governments are too smart to allow one to break out. They are right that trade wars won't help the economy, but I'm not so sure about that second part. Since when have governments been immune to fits of stupidity? In our dismal current political climate, Republicans and Democrats are doing whatever they can to get elected, and they're proving all too willing to use bogeymen and push voodoo economics if they feel they need to.

很多观察家认为没有任何人和政府对贸易战感兴趣，所以不会允许任何一国发动贸易战。他们是对的，贸易战不会帮助当前经济。但是我仍然心有余悸。我们政府什么时候曾对愚蠢免疫过？在当前低迷的政治氛围下，共和党和民主党为了当选可以做任何事情，如果需要，他们甚至可以使用魔鬼和巫术经济学。

Second, there is a danger that China's state-owned enterprises will re-emerge to dominate the country's economy. In truth, the state-owned sector saved China's economy during the financial crisis. Large state-owned banks like Bank of China and ICBC pumped liquidity into the system and rolled over loans, unlike in America, where JPMorgan and Citigroup ( C - news - people ) stopped lending and started foreclosing too much, destroying consumer confidence. Large Chinese companies promised not to lay off employees even if it cut into their profits. Such actions by the state-owned sector boosted business and consumer confidence in a way that low interest rates never could.

中国经济面临的还有一种危险就是国有企业重新主宰经济。事实上，国有企业在经济危机中挽救了中国经济。大型国有银行比如中国银行和工商银行向经济注入了流动性以及抑制了过量的贷款，这不像美国，在美国，摩根和花旗停止向人们放贷，开始收缩贷款，这毁坏了消费者的信心。在金融危机期间，中国的大型国有企业承诺即使利润降低也不裁员。国有部门做出这样的行为极大刺激了商人和消费者的信心。

But no country's economy can be sustained in the long term by its state-owned businesses, and China is in danger of allowing state-owned firms to creep back to too much power in its economy after a long period of retreat. Most of those companies are lumbering, bureaucratic engines of inefficiency, driven more by politics than profit, and it will not be good if they are the ones responsible for propping up growth.

但是，没有一个国家的经济在国有商业模式下能够持续，在经历一个时期的撤退之后，现在允许国有企业在经济活动中获得更多的力量，是中国面临的一种危险。这些国有公司大多行动缓慢、效率低下，由政治驱动而不是利润，如果由这一因素支撑增长，那不会是一件好事。

In the two decades before the financial crisis, 60% of new jobs in America were created by companies with fewer than 50 employees. More than 9 million Americans submitted their taxes as S corporations in 2008. In China, there is no equivalent of an S corporation.

在金融危机之前的二十年，美国60%新增就业岗位是由人数少于50人的公司创造的。2008年，有900万美国人作为小型公司雇员交税。中国却没有小型公司这一等级。

Unlike in the U.S., where you can start a business out of your garage, as the founders of Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ - news - people ) did, in China you can't start up without first renting an official office and getting approvals from different ministries. Not only can navigating the bureaucracy take several months, but this increases entrepreneurs' financial risk. Far too many have to invest large amounts of capital up front to get an office and hire legal help before their business model is even tested.

不像美国，你在自己车库就可以开一家公司，比如惠普的创始人。在中国，如果你没有租用办公室就不可能开公司，同时还要得到不同部门的批准。这样不仅花费了政府部门的时间，而且增加了企业的金融风险。所以，在一种商业模式没有进行实验之前，很多人不得不花费大量资本租用办公室以及聘请律师。

Furthermore, new human resource laws implemented in the beginning of 2008 make it costlier to fire workers. As a result, companies are hesitant to add employees to their payrolls and can't hire short-term contract workers for more than a short fixed period.

此外，2008年新实施的《人力资源法》使得解雇工人的费用更加高昂。造成的结果是，公司犹豫于是否增加雇员工资，以及不能雇用超过固定期限的短期合同工。

China's economy remains strong, but the next six months will be rocky, as perils with the renminbi, the election season in the U.S. and a reinvigorated state-run sector threaten the country's long-term economic growth.

人民币依然坚挺，但是接下来的六个月困难重重。人民币问题、美国中期选举问题以及国有部门的控制问题都将对中国经济长期增长构成威胁。

Shaun Rein is the founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group, a strategic market intelligence firm. He writes for Forbes on leadership, marketing and China. Follow him on Twitter@shaunrein.

肖恩雷恩：中国市场研究集团创始人和常务董事，这是一家战略情报公司。他为《福布斯》的领导、市场和中国等栏目写作。在Twitter@shaunrein可以追踪他。