North Korea on the brink of collapse?

来源：百度文库 编辑：神马文学网 时间：2024/07/04 11:50:59

North Korea on the brink of collapse?

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Kim Jong Il and his father in 1980

North Korea is preparing its biggest political gathering in 30 years, fueling speculation Kim Jong Il may use the forum to legitimatize a transfer of power to his youngest son as his own takeover was ensured at a 1980 summit.


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Party leaders attended an extraordinary congress of the Workers Party on Wednesday celebrating the country's 62nd anniversary of foundation

Despite there is voice reckoning North Korean leaders may discuss countermeasures to US's mounting measures in the party congress, South Korea and the Westerners trend to predict the meeting will a beginning of turbulence inside North Korea if Kim transfers power to his youngest son.



Inexperienced successor

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A photo of Kim Jong-un at the age of 16


Kim Jong-un's inexperience will make consolidating power difficult, especially given his huge reliance on a coterie of generals and party officials whose ambitions, wealth and safety will not be under his personal control as they were under his father.


Two columnists of Financial Times say that power may no longer be concentrated in the hands of one man, meaning the political dynamics will be more complex, and possibly more unstable.


The new leader may emerge as a mere figurehead for a cluster of generals and other bosses. Ultimately, at times of such upheaval in authoritarian states, the fate of millions can hang on the thread of a strong or weak personality and the complex relationships between family members and their ambitions.


If the new Kim cannot consolidate power, the regime could collapse.



What if North Korea collapses?

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In the view of one U.S. military strategist, a collapse of North Korea -- a dirt-poor nation with an indoctrinated population and nuclear-armed military -- could result in no less than the greatest world crisis in modern times.


Lv Chao, North Korea expert of Liaoniang Academy of Social Sciences, warns North Korea's collapse would impair not only China's border security but also the stability of Northeast Asia including Japan, South Korea and their common ally America.



Collapse is the West's wishful thinking?

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According to conventional wisdom in Washington, and the North Korean system will collapse or, at the very least, become grudgingly cooperative. The United States might well have tried this approach before and failed--under the Clinton administration and the Bush administration.


There are no signs from within North Korea that either a popular uprising along the Polish model is in the offing or a North Korean Gorbachev in the wings.



Do you think the current North Korean regime would achieve smooth power transfer in the upcoming political gathering?
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