中国银行业：高盈利下的高风险 Uniform results highlight risks building up for China’s lenders

中国银行业：高盈利下的高风险Uniform results highlight risks building up for China’s lenders
China’s big banks are all majority-owned by the state, their top executives are mostly former central bankers appointed by the Communist party and their profits are all generated using the same business model.
中国大型银行全部为国有控股，其最高层管理人员大多为中共任命的前央行官员，它们创造利润的商业模式也高度一致。
But even for such a homogeneous industry, their first-half profit results looked eerily similar.
但即便是来自一个高度“同质”的行业，中国各大银行上半年的业绩也相似到了诡异的程度。
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank (the world’s largest and second largest banks by market value) and Bank of China (China’s fourth-largest lender by assets) all reported net profit inc- reases of 27 per cent in the first half of the year from the same period last year.
中国工商银行(Industrial and Commercial Bank of China)，中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)以及中国银行(Bank of China)均公布，上半年利润较去年同期增长27%。以市值计算，工行和建行分别为全球第一大和第二大银行，中行是以资产计算的中国第四大银行。
Bank of Communications, the country’s fifth-largest lender, saw its net profit rise slightly faster – by 30 per cent.
中国第五大银行——交通银行(Bank of Communications)净利润增长速度略快，达到30%。
The similarity in their business models explains the banks’ uniform profitability but also highlights the risks that are building up across the sector.
商业模式的相似性是各大银行盈利能力如此一致的一个原因，但这种一致性也突显出整个中国银行业正在累积的风险。
Chinese banks take in deposits from companies and citizens with very few investment alternatives but some of the highest savings rates in the world and then lend the money mostly to large state-backed borrowers to build factories, steel mills and real estate.
中国的银行从公司和个人那里获得存款，然后将大多数资金出借给由政府支持的大型贷方，用于建设工厂、钢铁厂和房地产项目。中国的企业与个人的投资选择非常有限，但储蓄率则名列世界前列。
The vast majority of bank profits come from the difference between the interest rate they have to pay depositors and the rate they charge borrowers – a generous spread that is set by the central bank in order to protect the banks from cut-throat competition.
银行的绝大部分利润来自存贷款利率之间的巨大利差。这种利差由央行制定，目的是保护银行免受激烈竞争之苦。
This business model is often referred to in China as “eating capital” because it encourages banks to lend as much as they can until their balance sheets are eroded and they have to return to the capital markets for funds in order to meet regulatory requirements.
这种盈利模式在中国被称为“资本消耗型”模式，因为它会鼓励银行尽可能多地对外放贷，直至其资产负债表遭到侵蚀，然后银行便不得不回到资本市场募集更多资金，以满足监管要求。
“This is not a sustainable business model over the long term,” says Tom Orlik, an economist at Stone & McCarthy in Beijing. “But as long as you believe in the China growth story and as long as the government doesn’t liberalise interest rates or allow foreign competitors to take a large share of the market then the banks will continue to be the geese that lay the golden eggs.”
“长期来看这不是一个可持续的商业模式，”Stone & McCarthy驻北京经济学家汤姆•奥尔利克(Tom Orlik)表示。“但只要你相信中国的增长前景，只要政府不放开利率、不允许外资竞争对手获得大量市场份额，那么这些银行仍将是会下金蛋的鹅。”
China’s “big five” state-controlled banks – including ICBC, CCB, BOC, BoCom and newly listed Agricultural Bank of China – earned almost Rmb274bn ($40bn) between them in the first half of the year.
中国“五大”国有银行——包括工行、建行、中行、交行以及新近上市的中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)——今年上半年净利润总额将近达到2740亿元人民币（合400亿美元）。
Analysts expect earnings to moderate in the second half of the year but still expect combined net profit growth for the whole year above 20 per cent.
分析师预计，下半年银行收益将减缓，但全年净利润整体增幅仍将超过20%。
However, over the longer term the same uniformity that allows China’s large banks to reap similar profits in good times will mean exposure to the same dangers and risks if things start to turn ugly.
然而，更长期来看，中国大型银行在经济形势良好时期收获差不多利润的这种统一性意味着，如果形势开始恶化，各大银行将暴露在相同的危害和风险之下。
An unprecedented doubling in new loans last year from 2008 has been described by some economists as the greatest financial easing in history.
去年中国新增贷款较2008年增加了一倍，达到空前规模，一些经济学家称此为历史上规模最大的金融宽松措施。
Credit conditions remain far looser than in earlier years although the government has tried to slow lending growth since the start of the year.
尽管自年初起，中国政府一直在努力减缓贷款增长速度，但信贷条件仍然比早些年宽松得多。
Even top Chinese bankers are quick to admit that not all of the lending in the past two years was to viable, creditworthy projects and that a significant portion may never be repaid.
就连中国顶尖银行家都很快承认，过去两年贷款并不是都发放给了具有良好信誉、可行性高的项目，而且其中相当大一部分贷款可能永远无法得到偿付。
Stone & McCarthy estimates that nascent bad loans to local governments, real estate projects and redundant sectors of the economy could raise the banking industry’s overall non-performing loan ratio from the current 1.3 per cent to about 7.9 per cent in the next two or three years.
Stone & McCarthy预计，发放给地方政府、房地产项目以及经济冗余部门的新增不良贷款，会在未来两到三年里使银行业的整体不良贷款率从目前的1.3%提升至约7.9%。
In a more extreme scenario, in which housing prices fall further than expected and local government defaults rise, the NPL ratio could rise by about Rmb5,400bn, to 13.4 per cent of total loans.
如果出现房价下跌幅度超出预期、地方政府违约率上升的更极端状况，不良贷款率可能上升至13.4%，总额可能达到约5.4万亿元人民币。
A decade ago, following an earlier credit-fuelled stimulus package, China’s financial system was largely insolvent, with an official NPL ratio above 30 per cent prompting a banking crisis that Beijing has still not properly cleaned up.
十年前，中国金融体系在经历了一轮由信贷推动的刺激措施之后，大体上陷入了资不抵债的境地，官方公布的不良贷款率超过30%，引发了一场银行业危机。这场危机造成的烂摊子，中国政府迄今都尚未彻底清理干净。
Since the end of last year, the Ministry of Finance has rolled over Rmb720bn worth of 10-year, non-transferable bonds that were given to ICBC, BOC and CCB in exchange for a chunk of their bad loans 10 years ago.
自去年年底以来，中国财政部已经对逾7200亿元人民的十年期不可转换债进行了展期。这些债券是十年前发放给工行、建行以及中国银行，用以交换其部分不良贷款的。
With a few pen strokes Beijing has delayed the reckoning for its previous bank bail-out by another decade but in 10 years the banking sector is likely to be burdened with at least one more pile of bad loans.
寥寥数笔，中国政府便将上一次银行纾困计划的结账日又往后延了十年，但十年后，银行业背上的重担可能还会增加，至少会增加一批新的不良贷款。
In the meantime, Chinese lenders will continue to turn to the government and to capital markets to satisfy their ravenous appetite for fresh capital.
与此同时，中资银行将继续求助于政府和资本市场，来满足其对新鲜资本的贪婪需求。