从人性弱点到投资误区(Psytopic)

身边的心理学 | 评论(6) EN3人推荐您感兴趣的这篇文章来自ＰＳＹＴＯＰＩＣ，网址是psytopic.com ，我们相信这次点击不会浪费您的时间。Why is it said that "People tend to prematurely sell stocks to make money, while the long-term stock holders lose money."? Wall Street has an old adage: the market by two forces, one is the greedy one is fear. Investment objective is to make money, but will be able to invest in making money? If you can make money, how much you can do? These two different questions to answer, in fact, represent an entirely different investment motives; different investment motives are brought about by different investment behavior; different investment behavior of different investment psychology. Recommend this article, talk about investment in common some mental errors. -psytopic.com

Buffett's first speech from the beginning of today's article it:

Buffett in a speech, referring to investment errors, pointing out that some people do not think the whole market will be prosperous, they just think they can select from among the remaining winners. He explained that, although innovation may make the world out of poverty, but the history of innovation in the late investors are not happy to end. The following are his words:

"This slide shows only a half pages of content, which content comes from a long list of 70, which includes all of the American Motors Corporation." He goes in the air shook the complete list. "It's above automotive companies have 2000: Motor vehicles are the half of the 20th century, the most significant invention. Its people's life had a dramatic impact. If you are the first batch of the birth of the automobile era witnessed how the country is because the development of automotive up, then you might say, "This is my investment in the field must be. "However, in a few years ago more than 2,000 automotive enterprises, only three enterprises survived. And, before long, the three company's selling price is lower than its book value, that is lower than the original investment companies and funds retained down amount. Thus, although the United States have had a car on the enormous positive impact, but investors have had the opposite impact. "

In this new model, the new concept of the rise of the Internet era, known as web2.0, web3.0 the dawn of time, Buffett's speech whether it will give us some ideas?


Next, please read by Xu published in the "Shanghai Securities News" on the article:

The first misunderstanding: over-confidence and control hallucinations.

A professional survey shows: 82% of the drivers for more than a year驾龄think beyond the general level of their own. Obviously, most people overestimate their own level. 2499 on the depth of entrepreneurs interviewed were as follows: 82 percent think their own business will be successful, while only 39 percent of people think other people's business will be as successful with them. This is difficult to avoid over-confidence.

Coins thrown in the former are almost all the casino betting rules. For example, guess the size of玩骰子, casino owners have found that gamblers place bets before the dice roll, dice shake than after bets is much greater. When the investment
People to make investment decisions, he would think of themselves in the future things have a big enough to grasp, it seems that they are able to grasp the changes in the future. In fact you what is happening in the future there is no ability to control, but because their participation, you will think that they have control. This is an over-confidence resulting from illusion of control.

Actual investment, over-confidence and control at least the illusion of three questions:

First of all transactions are frequent. Our shares in 2007 to see if it交割单print out. We overestimated the accuracy of information and their own ability to analyze information, resulting in frequent trading. Not only improve the transaction costs, but also lead us to more easily make a wrong investment decisions.

Can not fully decentralized investment: because too much confidence, leading to focus on investment, risk focus. Substantial concentration of investment in equity interests and other products, was completely out of major categories of asset allocation for the handover. Including the Christian Democratic, last year the vast majority of assets in equity funds as an investment varieties, even if the latter does not consider how changes in the end market, from the portfolio, risk management, such as any one point of view, this approach is unreasonable of.

Selectivity filter: only willing to accept information in support of his judgments, and the filter does not support their own judgments of the information, leading to even more believe that their own judgments. Pupil markets every day fight for existence, empty look of the many reasons to watch, the capital market at any time so, but many people firmly look out look often overlooked reason for the empty, even if those reasons are very obvious. Why not? Over-confidence and control of hallucinations caused by the selectivity filter for the information.


The second misunderstanding: the pride and regret psychological

People will avoid the lead to regrettable behavior, away from the thought that the pursuit of good behavior. Regret is that when people realize that before a decision is considered bad when emotionally suffering; proud when people are aware that a previous decision-making are identified correctly when triggered by emotional快乐.

For example: buy a few months you have been the same since a group of lottery numbers, friends suggest that you choose another number one group, you will change? In fact, any one knows the probability of two sets of winning numbers are the same.

There are four possible, change the original number of winning numbers, winning numbers to change the number of new, not changing the original number of winning numbers, not changing the number of friends recommend winning numbers. Consider what makes you regret it, and what makes you proud. Come take a look at their own decision. More people will not choose to replace the numbers, the reasons behind their selection is not a matter of fact the number of high probability, but if the change of number, the joy of winning did not adhere to the original winning numbers bring big pleasure. Similarly, if its not for you, friends recommend bring regret winning numbers, but also far less than if the change of number, while the original has its own numbers in the election that will bring regret.

Let's look at a more specific assumptions: You have two stocks, A and B shares. A stock is currently 20 percent profit, stock B is currently a loss of 20%. Who would you sell? The vast majority of investors choose to sell are holding a B, because A sold to bring their own feelings of happiness, while B is sold to bring their own emotional pain - I have to wait until at least return the cost of B price and then sell. This has been the seemingly ridiculous, but true happened many times conclusion: people tend to prematurely sell stocks to make money, and lose money long-term holders of stocks.


The third misunderstanding: nostalgic past

The so-called nostalgic past, people tended to refer to past results as a similar investment in a risk assessment decision-making considerations, and even is very important. Why does it have in 2007 the Fund's sales scenarios so popular? Majority of ordinary people is not found in the Fund's investment value, not their risk of the investment decision-making, even if only by drawing on the banks of the Customer Manager for risk decision-making expertise. According to neighbors, are they just bought a fund to make money, and children uncle bought him two of the fund money and other reasons, have made investment decisions. We call it a "wealth effect." And investment, such as himself make any money then, this wealth effect is even more apparent. In fact, little investment experience of investors are aware, the investment risks and benefits with the past performance of the investment are not directly related, or even the past on behalf of high-yield usually overdrawn on its future earnings, resulting in maintaining high-yield are very difficult.

A famous psychology experiment. First experiment: Request for 95 undergraduates to participate in finance or not to participate in positive and negative about the gambling coin decision-making, 41 percent of people choose to participate. The second experiment, the same educational background, find another 95 people involved in the experiment, different lies in the fact that prior staff members free of charge by the organization presented to them to participate in this sweepstakes gambling 15 U.S. dollars. Results, 78% of the people chosen to participate. This is the famous "Casino money effect": In the casino, people tend not to make their money gambling as "their own", but rather as a "casino", the big losers back. Every Las Vegas casino where, as long as you stay at the hotel, the room is almost always a gift that chip, which is a casino boss wisdom. Similarly, the investment decision-making in general, once the previous similar investment decisions made money, many people tend to judge the two: the first is just now talking about using the experience to judge the investment is good, continue to invest even additional. The second judge: This is a white-earned money, not me, and continue to invest in the worst case scenario亏掉. Thus, we have been to see the big bull market was in the course of continuous additional investment.

The "sentimentally attached to the past" as a kind of mental errors, not to deny the importance of concluding investment experience. Must admit that behind in the capital market has to maintain its operation of the most basic laws of the host, it is difficult to change. But we also believe that the laws remain unchanged, but its manifestations are varied. To the end of 2005 to the current market as an example: in 2006, we were immersed in a long bear market thinking; fell 5.30 Let us sum up the pre-hard rubbish shares, stocks, st stock market thoroughly subversive; when we spent a few months before finally delighted to find that the value of investments, long-term holding, the blue chips, resource stocks, the long-term hold, then we suffer deep.

Rather than the capital market is not the law, but we know it is not enough. We are their superficial understanding of the law may lead to a bigger loss. So, I have heard senior members of the industry so that we a memorable words: make a lot of money on intelligence, to make a little money on technology, know-how to lose money on.


The fourth misunderstanding: the representation of thought and familiar with the thinking

Psychology study found that the human brain using a shortcut to simplify the analysis of information processing. Use of these shortcuts, the brain can be estimated rather than an answer to analyze all the information. This will undoubtedly improve the efficiency of the brain, but also difficult to correctly analyze the investors of new information, so as to arrive at wrong conclusions.

Representation based on a fixed pattern of thinking to analyze and judge, think things with similar characteristics are the same. Familiar with the thinking that people are familiar with the likes of things, to make investment decisions when the same is true. Often someone with a fund, a stock with repeated operation. If it is out of the company, the fund companies and fund managers are long-term, deeper understanding, which operate beyond reproach. In fact, the majority of people is not the case. They are concerned about the operation of a securities or varieties, simply because "I often do this." Just like the fans always like to support local teams. Let us look at the United States an example of 401k pension plans. The study found that 42% of the 401k pension plan assets invested in shares of the Company. Because they are familiar with their own companies, often result in the Company's ratio of investment is too high, and this is very dangerous. For example, the Enron Corporation plans to invest in this company as much as 60 percent of companies going bankrupt led to a loss of pension plans 1.3 billion U.S. dollars. Summed up in terms of: Thinking familiar with the lead to two questions: first, to overestimate their own investment in the value of investment goods; Secondly, the investment focus is only due to a substantial improve familiar. Two issues together, and that is a big problem.

High IQ investment game, in this game, only beat themselves, others can be overcome. Now known as the mental errors, it can not be entirely avoided, but the grasp of these errors can help us as much as possible to avoid this type of error. Finally, we again read Buffett's famous quote: I like the majority of investors will be greed and fear. But I like the majority of investors are different, people greedy, I fear; others fear, I greed.

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为什么说“人们倾向于过早地卖出赚钱的股票，而长期持有亏钱的股票。”？华尔街有句古老的格言：市场由两种力量推动，一种是贪婪，一种是恐惧。投资的目的是赚钱，可是投资一定可以赚钱吗？如果可以赚钱，那么可以赚多少钱呢？对这两个问题的不同回答，实际上是代表了完全不同的投资动机；不同的投资动机带来的是不同的投资行为；不同的投资行为对应不同的投资心理。今天推荐一篇文章，聊聊投资中常见的一些心理误区。-psytopic.com

先从巴菲特的一次讲话开始今天的文章吧：

巴菲特在一次演讲中，提到投资的误区，指出有些人并非认为整个市场会繁荣，他们只是认为他们能够从剩余当中挑选出胜利者。他解释说，虽然创新可能让世界摆脱贫困，但是历史上创新的投资者后期都没有以高兴收场。以下是他的原话：

“这张幻灯片只有列示半页内容，而这些内容来自于一张长达70页的清单，里面包括了美国所有的汽车公司。”他在空中晃了晃那张完整的清单。“这上面有2000家汽车公司：汽车是20世纪上半叶最重大的发明。它对人们的生活产生了巨大的影响。如果你在第一批汽车诞生的时代目睹国家是如何因为汽车而发展起来，那么你可能会说，“这是我必须要投资的领域。” 但是，在几年前的2000多家汽车企业中，只有三家企业活了下来。而且，曾几何时，这三家公司的出售价格都低于其账面价值，即低于当初投入公司并留存下来的资金数额。因此，虽然汽车对美国产生了巨大的正面影响，但却对投资者产生了相反的冲击。”

在这新模式，新概念兴起的互联网时代，被称之为web2.0，web3.0的黎明时刻，巴菲特的讲话是否能给我们一点启示呢？

接下来，请阅读由徐鹏发表在《上海证券报》上的文章：

　　第一个误区:过分自信与控制性幻觉。

　　一项专业调查显示:82%的驾龄超过一年的司机认为自己超出一般水平。很显然,大部分人高估了自己的水平。而对2499位创业者的深度采访发现:82%认为自己的企业一定会成功,而只有39%的人认为别人的企业也会跟他们一样成功。这就是难以避免的过分自信。

　　在硬币抛出前下注是几乎所有赌场的规矩。比如玩骰子猜大小,赌场老板们发现赌徒在摇骰子之前下注,明显比骰子摇完之后下注要大得多。当投资
人作出投资决策时,他会认为自己对未来的事情有足够大的把握,似乎自己可以掌握未来的变化。而实际上你对未来发生的事情没有任何控制能力,只是因为自己参与其中,你便认为自己有了控制能力。这是一种过分自信导致的控制幻觉。

　　实际投资中,过分自信与控制幻觉至少导致三个问题:

　　首先是频繁交易。把我们在2007年的股票交割单打印出来看看吧。我们高估信息的准确性和自己分析信息的能力,导致频繁交易。不但提高了交易成本,也导致我们更容易作出错误的投资决策。

　　不能充分分散化投资:因为过于自信,导致集中投资,风险集中。投资大量地集中于股票等权益类产品,完全失去了对于大类资产配置的把握。包括基民,去年将绝大多数的资产集中于股票基金一种投资品种上,即便不考虑后期的市场行情到底如何变化,从资产组合、风险管理等任何一个角度,这种做法本身是不合理的。

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　　选择性过滤:只愿意接受支持自己判断的信息,而过滤掉不支持自己的判断的信息,导致更加相信自己的判断。市场每天都存在多空争夺,看空看多各有理由,资本市场随时如此,但是坚决看多的人往往忽视掉看空的理由,即便这些理由非常明显。原因何在？过分自信和控制幻觉导致的对于信息的选择性过滤。

　　第二个误区:骄傲与遗憾心理

　　人们会避开导致遗憾的行为，而去追求自以为好的行为。遗憾就是当人们认识到以前的一项决定被认为是糟糕的时候情感上的痛苦；自豪是当人们认识到以前的一项决策被认定是正确的时候引发的情感上的快乐。

　　举个例子：几个月以来你一直购买相同的一组彩票号码，朋友建议你选择另外一组号码，你会改变吗？其实，任何一个人都知道两组号码的中奖概率是一样的。

　　可能的情况有四种，更改号码原号码中奖、更改号码新号码中奖、不更改号码原号码中奖、不更改号码朋友推荐的号码中奖。考虑一下，哪些会让你遗憾不已，而哪些会让你自豪。再来看看自己的决定吧。更多人不会选择更换号码，背后的原因其实并不是自己的选的号码概率高，而是如果换了号码，中奖的喜悦没有坚持原来的号码中奖带来的喜悦大。同样的，如果没换号吗，朋友推荐号码中奖带来的遗憾，也远远小于如果换了号码，而原来自己选的号码却中了将带来的遗憾。

　　再来看一个更具体的假设：你有两只股票，股票甲和乙。股票甲目前盈利20%，股票乙目前亏损20%。你会卖出谁？绝大多数投资人的选择是卖出甲而持有乙，因为卖出甲给自己带来情感的快乐，而卖出乙则给自己带来情感的痛苦——我要至少等到乙回到成本价再卖掉。这就得到了那个看似可笑、却真实的发生了很多次的结论：人们倾向于过早地卖出赚钱的股票，而长期持有亏钱的股票。

　　第三个误区：眷恋过去

　　所谓眷恋过去，是指人们倾向于将过去的类似投资结果作为评估一项风险决策的考虑因素，甚至是非常重要的。2007年为什么出现了基金销售如此火爆的情景？并不是广大的普通老百姓发现了基金的投资价值，并不是他们对于这项投资进行了风险决策，哪怕仅仅是借助银行客户经理的专业知识进行风险决策。他们仅仅是根据邻居买了基金赚钱了，小孩他二舅买了基金赚钱了等原因，做出了投资决策。我们称之为“财富效应”。而等他自己投资赚到钱以后，这种财富效应就更明显了。而实际上，稍具投资经验的投资人都知道，投资的风险和收益与过去该项投资的业绩没有直接的关系，甚至过去的高收益一般会代表透支其未来收益，从而导致高收益的保持是非常困难的。

如果您对这篇文章感兴趣，相信你会对PSYTOPIC同样感兴趣，网址是Psytopic.com ，这次点击不会浪费您的时间。这是Psytopic的指纹密码：aHR0cDovL3d3dy5wc3l0b3BpYy5jb20v，您可以凭这个指纹在google搜索到我们的网站。

　　一个很有名的心理学实验。第一次实验：要求95名金融学本科生作出参与或者不参与关于硬币正反面的赌博决策，41%的人选择参与。第二次实验，另外找同样教育背景的95人参与该实验，不同在于，事先由组织人员无偿赠送给他们参与这项赌博的赌金15美元。结果，78%的人选择了参与。这就是有名的“赌场的钱效应”：在赌场里，人们倾向于不把赌博赚来的钱当作“自己的”，而是当作“赌场”的，大不了输回去。拉斯维加斯的每家赌城里，只要你入住酒店，房间里几乎都有赠送的一点筹码，这就是赌场老板的高明之处。同样的，在一般的投资决策中，一旦以前的同类的投资决策赚了钱，许多人倾向于两种判断：第一就是刚才讲的，用经验来判断这个投资是很好的，继续投资甚至追加。第二个判断：这钱是白赚来的，不是我的，继续投资，大不了亏掉。从而，我们不断地看到有人在大牛市的历程中不断的追加投资。

　　把“眷恋过去”作为一种心理误区，并不是否认总结投资经验的重要性。必须承认，在资本市场的背后有维持其运作的最基本的规律所在，这是难以改变的。但是我们同时认为，这种不变的规律，表现形式却是多种多样的。以2005年底到现在的市场为例：2006年的时候，我们沉浸在漫长的熊市思维中；5·30大跌让我们把前期辛苦总结的垃圾股、概念股、st股行情彻底颠覆；当我们又花了几个月时间才好不容易欣喜地发现了价值投资、长期持有、蓝筹股、资源股的时候，长期持有又让我们受害颇深。

　　不是资本市场没有规律，而是我们还不够认识它。我们对其规律的粗浅的认知，可能导致的是更大的亏损。于是，听到了业内资深人士一句让我们回味无穷的话：赚大钱靠智慧，赚小钱靠技术，亏钱靠知识。

　　第四个误区：代表性思维与熟悉性思维

　　心理学研究发现，人的大脑利用捷径简化信息的分析处理过程。利用这些捷径，大脑可以估计出一个答案而不用分析所有的信息。这无疑提高了大脑的工作效率，但同时也使投资者难以正确分析新的信息，从而得出错误的结论。

　　代表性思维根据固定的模式进行分析判断，认为具有相似特征的事物是相同的。熟悉性思维是指人们喜欢熟悉的事物，做出投资决策的时候也是如此。经常有人对同一支基金、同一支股票反复的操作。如果是出于对该公司、该基金公司和基金经理长期、深入的了解，这种操作无可厚非。而实际上，大多数人并非如此。他们关注或者操作某种证券品种，仅仅是因为“我经常这么做”。就好像球迷们总是支持本地球队一样。让我们看一下美国401k养老金计划例子吧。研究发现，42%的401k养老金计划的资产投资于本公司股票。因为他们熟悉自己的公司，往往造成投资本公司的比例过高，而这是非常危险的。比如，安然公司该计划投资于本公司比例高达60%，公司破产导致养老金计划损失了13亿美元。总结来讲：熟悉性思维导致两个问题：第一，高估自己熟悉的投资品的投资价值；第二，投资集中度仅因熟悉而大幅度提高。两个问题结合在一起，那就是大问题了。

　　投资是高智商的游戏，在这个游戏里，只有战胜了自己，才能战胜别人。既然称之为心理误区，那就不可能完全避免，但是对于这些误区的把握可以帮助我们尽可能地避免这一类的错误。最后，我们再次传诵巴菲特的名言：我跟大多数的投资者一样，也会贪婪和恐惧。但是我跟大多数投资者不同的是，别人贪婪的时候，我恐惧；别人恐惧的时候，我贪婪。