在经济衰退中挣扎的美国人

    Trying to Live With a Recession in the World's Largest Economy By Nancy Steinbach
2008-12-7
Welcome to THIS IS AMERICA in VOA Special English. I'm Steve Ember.

VOICE TWO:

And I'm Barbara Klein. This week on our program, we turn our attention to the economy.

(MUSIC)

VOICE ONE:

An employee loads a TV for a shopper at Circuit City, a major seller of electronics. It sought bankruptcy protection last month and is closing one-fifth of its stores to reorganize.   A lot of people have thought for months that the United States is in a recession. But the economy is not officially in a recession until a private research organization says it is. Guess what? Last Monday the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the United States has been in a recession for the past year.

Economists on the Business Cycle Dating Committee met by conference call on Friday, November twenty-eighth. They decided that economic activity reached a high point in December of two thousand seven. It peaked after eight years of expansion.

The United States was last in a recession from March to November of two thousand one. Some economists say the current recession could last into two thousand ten. But how long, and how bad, it will be is really anyone's guess.

VOICE TWO:

The United States has the world's largest economy. Japan has the second largest. It, too, is in a recession, officially announced on November seventeenth. That was four days after Germany confirmed a recession in its economy, the largest in Europe.

One way to measure an economy is by the value of goods and services produced within a country -- its gross domestic product. The latest estimate shows that America's G.D.P. fell by half a percent between July and September. It also shrank at the end of last year.

But in between it grew. Recessions are commonly defined as at least six months in a row of decrease in G.D.P. The committee does not use this definition. Instead it uses a number of different reports to identify a recession.

Lower prices for new houses in Springfield, Illinois The economic crisis began with the collapse of property values, the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States. Investments built on high-risk mortgage loans became "toxic." No one wanted to trust banks that owned them. Credit markets froze.Governments around the world have had to intervene aggressively to support their financial systems.

VOICE ONE:

Barack Obama has to wait until January twentieth to become president. But he has already moved faster than most newly elected presidents to name his economic team. He wants to get an early start on an economic recovery plan big enough to contain the recession. His goal is to save or create two and a half million jobs by January of two thousand eleven.

He wants Congress to have legislation ready for him to sign into law soon after he takes office.

VOICE TWO:

Last Tuesday President-elect Obama met with the nation's governors in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. He said he wants their help in designing his economic recovery plan.

State and local governments are collecting less tax money as a result of falling property values, rising unemployment and other problems. Most of the fifty states are required to balance their budgets. Most are now facing deficits. So that means they have to cut services or raise taxes, or both.

Last Monday, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a "fiscal emergency" in California. He acted under a constitutional amendment passed by state voters in two thousand four. It requires California to balance its budget.

The declaration lets the governor call a special meeting of the legislature to pass measures within forty-five days to deal with the budget crisis. He wants a combination of spending cuts and tax increases in the nation's most populous state.

Early estimates show that over the next eighteen months, California's budget deficit could reach twenty-eight billion dollars. That is more than double the current shortfall.

Governor Schwarzenegger warned that without quick action, California could be out of money in February.

(MUSIC)

VOICE ONE:

U.S. fuel prices are at their lowest in almost five years Motorists are happy at the drop in fuel prices. But economically speaking, there is not much else to be happy about.

Stock prices climb one day, then fall the next. Investments and retirement savings have shrunk. The economic downturn has millions of people worried about keeping their jobs and their homes.

Americans have cut back on spending, and not just for things like travel and entertainment, or new cars. Some are limiting medical and dental care to only the services they need most. They may be saving money, but also taking a risk.

VOICE TWO:

One family trying to save money is the Jeffries of Carbondale, Colorado. Sarah Jeffries and her husband, Wayne, have two children: a son, age five, and a daughter, age two.

Wayne Jeffries is a manager for a construction company. Sarah says other builders in the area are letting workers go because of weak demand. She says her husband's company has projects through the middle of next year. But no one knows what will happen after that.

VOICE ONE:

Fear of losing a job is a big reason why people are looking to save money. Sarah Jeffries says she buys things only when the price has been reduced. She gets all the children’ s clothes from used clothing stores.

She says the family does not eat at restaurants as much as they used to. Sarah also says she looks for money-saving coupons to use at the grocery store because of high food prices. And she makes an extra effort not to waste any food. One or two times a week the Jeffries have what they call “picnic night."

That is, the kids call it picnic night. To the parents, it provides a way to use foods left over from meals earlier in the week. But Sarah serves the leftovers on plates on a blanket on the floor, and says the children love it.

VOICE TWO:

Saving money is also a goal this holiday season at the Jeffries’ house. Sarah says the family used to spend about one thousand five hundred dollars on Christmas gifts and decorations each year. But this year, she says they will spend between seven and eight hundred dollars.

One way they are cutting back is by reducing the number of gifts they buy. Sarah and Wayne generally exchange Christmas gifts with each other and with her parents and brother who live in the area. This year, the adults have all decided not to buy each other gifts. Instead, they are each putting fifty dollars toward a Nintendo Wii video-game system that they plan to share.

(MUSIC)

VOICE ONE:

Personal spending is a big part of the American economy. It represents about seventy percent of the gross domestic product.

For many businesses, anywhere from twenty-five to forty percent of their sales all year normally come during the winter holiday season.

The shopping season traditionally begins on the day after Thanksgiving. The day is called “Black Friday." The name comes from the tradition of recording profits in black ink and losses in red. Black Friday is when stores hope to return to the black for the year.

VOICE TWO:

Many stores now open before sunrise and offer extra special deals for early shoppers on Black Friday. The National Retail Federation found that almost one-fourth of shoppers this year arrived at stores by five o'clock in the morning.

Black Friday used to be the biggest shopping day of the year. And it still may be the day when the largest number of shoppers visit stores. An estimated seventy-four million people visited stores and Web sites on Black Friday this year. But Black Friday is no longer necessarily the day when shoppers spend the most money.

VOICE ONE:

With the economy down, shoppers are thinking carefully before making holiday purchases and looking for the best values. Black Friday this year was better than expected. But stores were offering big price reductions -- sacrificing profits, and possibly risking their futures.

VOICE TWO:

Americans are better known for spending money than for saving it.But now, some are trying to save by reducing the debt they owe on credit cards. Others are trying to avoid taking on new debt. Still others have had their credit limits reduced as a result of the financial crisis.

The Coinstar company reports that almost one-fourth of Americans say they are paying for purchases with cash more often than they did a year ago. Using cash, they say, helps them manage their money better and reduce credit card debt.

(MUSIC)

VOICE ONE:

Recently we asked some shoppers at the big Potomac Mills Mall, south of Washington, D.C., how the economy is affecting their lives. Erica Scott lives in Culpeper, Virginia:

ERICA SCOTT: "We have our own business. So, we’re feeling it there.Calls are slowing down. So, we’re just trying to cut back wherever we can. We’ve had to let a few employees go. We do a lot of contracts with the Virginia Department of Transportation and they’ve cut back on their contracts, so we’ve had to cut back. We’re eating out less, cutting more coupons out, shopping for cheaper gas, going to outlet malls instead of normal malls ... "

VOICE TWO:

Some shoppers are waiting to see how the economy does under the new administration. Dennis Aanderud of Spotsylvania, Virginia, put it this way:

DENNIS AANDERUD: “My wife would like to get a large-screen TV, and maybe a car. We’re just going to wait and see which way things are going. Things are in a very volatile situation right now and I think people are just waiting to look and see what President-elect Obama does.”

(MUSIC)

VOICE TWO:

Our program was written by Nancy Steinbach and produced by Caty Weaver. I'm Barbara Klein.

VOICE ONE:

And I'm Steve Ember. Transcripts, MP3s and podcasts of our programs are all available -- free of charge -- at 51voa.com. Join us again next week for THIS IS AMERICA in VOA Special English.  原文翻译： 在经济衰退中挣扎的美国人 

生活在世界最大的经济体的人们设法度过经济不景气

 

在本周的节目中，我们将注意力转向经济。

几个月来许多人都认为美国经济已经陷入衰退，但美国经济在一个民间研究组织确认之前还没有正式宣布陷入衰退。猜一猜结果会怎么样？上周一，美国经济研究局宣布，美国经济自去年就已经陷入衰退。11月28日(星期五)，企业周期认定委员会的经济学家们召开电话会议，他们认定，美国经济活力在2007年12月达到了顶点，美国经济经过长达八年的扩张后达到了顶峰。美国经济最近一次衰退是在2001年的3月至11月。有些经济学家说，目前的经济衰退将持续到2010年。但这次经济衰退到底会持续多长时间，会衰退到什么程度，任何人只能是猜测。

美国是世界上最大的经济体，日本位居第二，11月17日，日本也正式宣布陷入衰退。也就是四天后，欧洲最大的经济体德国也确认陷入衰退。衡量一个国家经济的办法是该国内的产品和服务价值(即国内生产总值GDP)。最新统计表明，美国的GDP在今年七月至九月间下降了0.5%，去年底美国经济也在收缩，但去年底到今年上半年美国经济还是增长的。一般来说，GDP持续六个月下降才能认定为经济陷入衰退，国家经济研究局企业周期认定委员会没有采用这一认定法，而是采用来自各种不同的经济分析报告来认定美国经济陷入了衰退。

此次经济危机起源于美国房地产贬值，房地产泡沫破灭。建立在高风险抵押贷款的投资现在成了“毒品”，没有人相信那些持有这些高风险抵押贷款的银行，信贷市场进入了冰冻期。世界各国政府不得不积极干预，以维持他们的金融体系。

巴拉克.奥巴马不得不等到明年的1月才能正式就任总统，但他已经比最近几任当选总统更快地提名他的经济团队，他要尽快地启动经济复兴计划，这个庞大的经济复兴计划能够战胜经济衰退。他的目标是到2011年1月创造250万个就业岗位，他希望国会能够为他做好立法准备，在他就任后尽快通过相关法律。

上周二，当选总统奥巴马在宾夕法尼亚州费城会见全国各州州长，他说，他的经济复兴计划需要他们的帮助。由于财产价值的缩水、失业率增加和其他一些问题，各州和当地政府的税收正在减少。五十个州中的大多数要求平衡他们的预算，许多州面临财政赤字。所以，这意味着他们不得不削减服务或增加税收，或这二种办法同时使用。上周一，加州州长阿诺德.施丽辛格发布一项声明，在加州实施“财政紧急状态”，他是根据该州2004年全民公决通过的宪法修正案而采取行动的，该“财政紧急状态”要求加州政府平衡该州的预算。

这项声明允许州长要求州议会召开一次特别会议，通过在四十五天里解决加州预算危机的措施，他希望在美国这个人口最多的州采取削减开支和增加税收的办法来平衡预算。早期的评估表明，在以后的18个月里，加州的预算赤字将达到280亿美元，这可是现在赤字的二倍以上。施瓦辛格州长警告说，如果不立即采取行动，加州将在明年2月就会没有钱了。

驾车者很高兴看到燃油价格下降，但从经济角度上讲，目前没有多少人会感到高兴。股票价格在一天里上涨，而在第二天却下降，投资者和观望者都很谨慎捂住钱袋。经济的低迷已经使无数的人担心他们的工作和他们的住房。美国人已经在日常花销、出去旅行、娱乐或购买新车等方面减少开支，有些人减少了他们的身体检查和牙齿护理的次数，只要当他特别需要时才去，由此他们会省下钱来，但他们也在承受着风险。

有一个家庭正设法节约，他们是科罗拉多州卡本代尔市的杰佛瑞斯家。莎拉.杰佛瑞斯和她的丈夫韦恩.杰佛瑞斯有两个孩子：一个男孩，今年五岁，一个女孩，今年只有两岁。韦恩.杰佛瑞斯是一家建筑公司的经理人，莎拉说该地区的其他一些建筑商因为需求不景气而正让他们的工人回家，她丈夫的那家公司到明年中期还有一项工程，但没有人知道此后会发生什么。

 

人们之所以想办法省钱，担心失业是主要原因。莎拉.杰佛瑞斯说，她只在大削价时才购买东西，她在旧衣店里给她的孩子购买衣服。她说，她们家不能和以前那样经常到饭店吃饭了。莎拉还说，她寻找省钱的购物券在食杂店里购买东西，因为食品价格太高了。另外，她还尽一切努力不浪费食物。杰佛瑞斯夫妇每周安排一、二次他们所谓的“野炊晚餐”，也就是说孩子们称之为的野炊晚餐，它为父母提供了一种利用一周来的剩菜剩饭的方法。莎拉把这些剩菜剩饭放在一个盘子里，她把这个盘子搁在地上的毯子上，并说孩子们喜欢吃这样的饭菜。

杰佛瑞斯夫妇省钱还有一个目的就是为了今年的圣诞节装饰他们的家。莎拉说，每年他们都要花1500美元来购买圣诞礼物和装饰房间，但今年，他们只能花七、八百美元了。削减开支的一个方法就是减少他们所购买的礼物。莎拉和韦恩通常要相互交换圣诞礼物，同时还要和居住在这一地区的父母和兄弟交换礼物。今年，这些成年人都决定不再给对方买礼物了，而是他们每个人都拿出五十美元购买他们打算一起玩的任天堂WII电脑游戏。

个人消费是美国经济的最大一部分，它占美国GDP的70%。对于许多商业企业而言，无论在什么地方，每年冬季这个假期他们的销售额通常都占全年销售额的25%至40%。美国传统的销售旺季是从感恩节之后第一天开始的，这一天被人称之为“黑色的星期五”，这个名称来源于传统的记帐方式，黑色代表赢利，而红色代表亏损。黑色星期五就是商家们希望这一年又能够赢利。

现在许多商店在黑色星期五早早就开门，并为最早来购物的消费者提供特别的待遇。全国零售联合会发现，今年近四分之一的消费者在早晨五点前就来到了商店门口。黑色星期五通常是一年中销量最大的一天，而且也是客流量最大的一天。有一项估计，今年美国有7400万人在黑色星期五这一天到商店和网站上购物，但黑色星期五不再是消费者必须是大额花销的一天了。

由于经济不景气，消费者在进行假期购物之前都非常细心地考虑一番，以寻求最合适的东西。今年的黑色星期五比预期的要好，但商家都是大幅度打折，也就是说以牺牲利润换取销量，这可能为他们以后带来风险。

美国人向来以花费多于储蓄闻名，但现在，有些人正想办法储蓄以减少他们信用卡上所欠下的债务。有些人尽可能避免欠新债。还有些人由于金融危机而使得其信贷额度减少。据币星公司的报告，大约四分之一的美国人表示，他们今年购物用现金的次数要比一年前多得多，他们说，用现金，促使他们更好地管理他们手中的钱，从而减少信用卡所带来的债务。

最近，我们询问了一些在华盛顿特区南部的波托马可米尔斯大型购物广场购物的消费者，此次经济衰退对他们的生活有什么样的影响。维吉尼亚州库帕伯的埃里卡.斯科特说：“我们有我们自己的生意，所以，我们正在感受到此次经济衰退带来的影响，订单正在减少，所以，我们尽可能想办法在各个方面减少支出，我们已经辞掉一些员工，我们为维吉尼亚州运输部做了许多合同，而他们现在也在削减他们的合同，所以，我们不得不也削减支出。我们外出吃饭减少了，使用更多的商家优待券，购买便宜的汽油，到郊外便宜的购物场而不是在普通购物场购物，…”。

对新政府上台后美国经济会怎么样，一些消费者正在观望。维吉尼亚州斯波茨尔瓦尼亚的丹尼斯.安德鲁德这样说：“我妻子想要一台大屏幕的电视，她还想要一辆车，我们正在等待，看看下一步会是怎么样，现在的形势很不稳定，我想人们都在等待，看看当选总统奥巴马会怎么做。”