窥探中国消费者文化

       为了预测中国国内消费市场的未来走势，我们很有必要了解一下中国的消费文化发展的历史脉络。卡尔.格特（Karl Gerth)在牛津大学教授中国近现代史，他的研究中特别关注中国的消费文化。他的观点真实而独特，不仅有对现当代中国历史的深刻理解，还提供了切实可行的商业见解。

    Joel Backaler: In your new book, As China Goes, So Goes the World: How Chinese Consumers are Transforming Everything, one of the questions you aim to answer is: What are the implications for China and the world of hundreds of millions of Chinese people adopting Western lifestyles? Can you please highlight the most significant implications?

       乔尔.巴克雷：在你的新书《中国动，世界动：中国消费者怎样改变世界》一书中，你要回答的其中一个问题是：十多亿中国人生活方式的西化对中国以及对世界都有什么样的影响？你可以重点谈谈最大的影响是什么吗？

    Karl Gerth: There is, of course, no single positive or negative implication of Chinese consumerism.  Rather than focus on the good or bad implications, I think it is more helpful to think of them as wide-ranging, interconnected, and often both good and bad.

       卡尔.格特：显然，中国消费文化的影响没有单纯的好或者不好。相对于关注影响的好坏，我认为认识到这些影响范围的广泛，相互之间的错综联系，和其难断好坏的复杂性对我们更有帮助。

    Take automobiles.  A few decades ago few Chinese owned cars; now China has surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest car market.  This is good news for any number of reasons.  Who would begrudge tens of millions of Chinese the opportunity to enjoy some of the same things that we do?  And thanks to Chinese consumers, multinationals such as GM, which now sells more cars in China than the U.S., rely heavily on China for their profits.  You might say many who have invested in the stock market have already been benefiting from Chinese consumerism.

       拿汽车行业来说。就在数十年前，拥有汽车的中国人凤毛麟角，而现在中国已经超越美国，跻身世界第一大汽车市场。说这是好消息有很多原因。有谁会因为有几千万中国人可以享用我们已经在享受的东西而感到嫉妒？而且，多亏中国的消费者，通用汽车这样的跨国公司在中国的售车量已经超过了美国，他们的大部分利润收入都来自中国。还可以说，许多股票投资人也已经从中国的消费中取得了收益。

    But there are many more implications.  China has vast ambitions to create its own national brands of everything, including automobiles.  It wants to move up the value-added chain and create a regulatory environment to promote Chinese brands.  The strategy has successes.  Already some 2 million Chinese work in their auto industry, including Chinese manufacturers such as Geely, which just bought Volvo.  Like the U.S. with its recent “cash for clunkers” program, in China it has become a national economic necessity to promote car ownership.  We’ll see how Detroit handles China doing for cars what it did for plastic deck chairs and so many other consumer goods: make them so inexpensive they become ubiquitous.  If Americans cannot name a Chinese car brand yet, I suspect they soon will.  And, of course, we’ll also see how well the planet can handle the extra carbon emissions and the intensifying competition for oil.

       但是，还有很多其他的影响。中国立志在所有行业树立本土品牌，包括汽车业。他们想要升级产业增值链，改善市场监督环境，以促进中国品牌的发展。这项战略取得了一些成功。中国的汽车行业现在约有2百万从业人员，其中有刚刚收购了“沃尔沃”的中国的汽车制造商吉利汽车。就像最近的“以旧换新”项目对美国的重要性一样，促进汽车销售在中国已经成为国家经济的必要措施。我们会看到底特律要怎么面对中国的汽车、中国的塑料折叠椅和中国的其它消费品，它们如此便宜，随处可见。虽然现在美国人一个中国汽车品牌都说不出来，但我想很快他们就能说出一两个。但是，当然，我们也要面对这个地球要怎么解决碳排放的问题，怎么缓解石油竞争的紧张局势的问题。

    So what you are saying is that in China as elsewhere consumerism begets more consumerism?

       所以你的意思是，中国消费主义的泛滥正在产生滚雪球效应？   

 Yes, the most significant implication of Chinese adopting Western lifestyles is that, in doing so, China, like the U.S. and E.U. countries before it, is deeply committing its economy and society to consumerism.  China is increasingly implementing policies designed to get its citizen-consumers to consume more and more, regardless of the implications.  The spread of consumerism in China will accelerate some opportunities for companies such as GM, Yum! Brands, McDonalds and Starbucks but it will also continue to create serious global challenges.  Once you have millions of people working in the car industry and once you have built the largest roadway network in the world, there is no simple road back to bicycles.  The same can be said of so many other aspects of Western consumer lifestyles: once Chinese are accustomed to things such as fast food and indoor plumbing, it’s hard for them to go back.  Likewise, it’s hard for politicians whose credibility and promotions are riding on hitting economic growth targets.  This deepening commitment to consumerism is creating a stream of opportunities and a tidal wave of new global challenges.

       是的，中国人的西化生活带来的最重要的影响在于，和以前的美国和欧洲一样，中国的经济和社会都会陷入消费主义倾向。中国正在不计后果地颁布更多的政策以促进本国消费者的消费。中国消费主义的蔓延会给通用汽车、百胜、麦当劳、星巴克带来更多的机会，但也会继续给全球带来更多的挑战。一旦你的汽车业有数百万从业者，一旦你建起了全球最大的道路网络，要返回自行车时代便绝非易事。西式生活的其他方面也一样：一旦中国人习惯了速食产品、上门管道维修，要回到过去就会很困难。同样的，将信誉和宣传点都放在完成经济增长目标上的政客们也很难回到过去。这种对消费主义的深化正汇成一线机会的细流和一波新的全球挑战的大潮。   

    In As China Goes, you argue that deliberate government policies aimed at reducing the country’s over-reliance on exports is transforming China from a country of scarcity and frugality to one in which the consumer ethos rules.  In your opinion, when will Chinese consumers, who are traditionally thought of as savers, be renowned for their spending?

       在《中国动》一书中，你谈到中国政府主动降低对出口的过分依赖的政策将一个物质稀缺，生活节俭的中国转变成一个消费倾向主导的中国。那么你认为惯于储蓄的中国消费者什么时候才能开始真正的消费？

    The consumer ethos clearly rules now for many tens of millions and yet remains irrelevant for hundreds of millions.  For many decades to come, China will remain both a spectacularly poor country and enviably rich country.

       现在，对中国数千万人来说，明显，他们的消费倾向主导着市场，而对其他的数亿人而言，他们的消费倾向还和市场扯不上关系。在数十年里，中国会一直是一个相当贫穷，又富裕得让人眼红的国家。

    There is plenty of evidence that tens of millions already have become more free-spending than frugal.  This certainly applies at the top end, where the Chinese luxury market is quickly becoming the world’s largest, leading to the success of LVMH, Richemont and Pernod Ricard.  This is already having worldwide repercussions not only for the bottom lines of luxury brands but also in areas such as tourism.  Major shopping streets such as Bond Street in London and Fifth Avenue in New York are already heavily dependent on Chinese tourist spending.

       有许多证据可以证明，这数千万的中国消费者已经摆脱了节俭，他们的消费变得更加自由。无疑这主要表现在高端市场。中国的奢侈品市场已经快速成长为世界最大市场，这个市场孕育了LVMH,Richemont(厉峰集团)，Pernod Ricard （潘诺力加：世界第二大烈性酒制造商）的成功。这不仅震动了奢侈品市场，同时还有旅游等行业。伦敦的邦德街，纽约的第五大道都极其依赖中国游客的消费。

    We can expect much more.  Encouraging consumerism is, after all, the new party line.  Chinese have new opportunities to borrow and reverse the country’s culture of saving, creating what is known in popular parlance, as mortgage slaves, car slaves, and a new class of young big spenders that has become known as the “tapped-out-by-the-end-of-the-month class.”  There are plenty of other policies designed to get Chinese to spend more, for instance, by giving civil servants pay raises, raising personal income tax exemptions, abolishing agricultural taxes, and allowing the Chinese currency to appreciate (within limits).

       我们可以翘首期待。毕竟鼓励消费是中国新的执政路线。中国人有更多的借贷机会，改变这个国家的储蓄文化，用时下流行的语说，在中国产生了“房奴”、“车奴”以及新一代的消费势力“月光族”。中国也有许多促进国民消费的政策，比如，提高公民收入，提高个人所得税起征点，取消农业税，允许人民币汇率（在一定范围内）增值。

   Of course, there are serious concerns about inequality.  China appears to be on its way from being one of the world’s most equal to one of the world’s most unequal societies.  Aside the political and social justice issues, this inequality may mean that the long-desired massive Chinese middle class may never emerge.  But, then again, maybe this problem is not unique to China.  Noble-prize winning economists such as Paul Krugman say the U.S. is quickly losing its own middle class.  China may just skip the middle, or middle class, stage and go directly to solidifying a two-tiered society.

      当然，不平等问题受到了社会的密切关注。中国好像正在从一个世界最平等国家变身为最不平等国家之一。撇开政治和社会的公正问题，这个不平等指大众盼望的庞大的中产阶级将永远不会再中国出现。但是，再次强调，中国也不是个特例。保罗.克鲁格曼等获得过诺贝尔奖的经济学家也曾指出美国的中产阶级正在迅速流失。中国可能只是跳过了中间这一步，或者跳过了中产阶级，直接进入了固化的两极社会。 

    What do you feel western consumer packaged goods companies selling to China’s mass market should consider in their branding? Should they try to localize their brand perception in the Chinese marketplace or stay “western” in their messaging?

       你认为西方大众消费品公司在中国的销售应该考虑品牌的建立么？他们是否应该根据中国消费市场将品牌理念本土化还是应该保持“西式”？ 

    Both.  They should localize and stay “western.”  Depending on the constantly changing circumstances, each has its advantages.

       两者兼顾。他们要既本土又“西式”。根据不断变化的环境，二者各有所长。

    Of course, they need to localize while continuing to play to their strengths, especially around issues of quality, safety, and leading technology.  But such positive associations with “western” and Japanese products are not fixed.  Indeed, I think the government-efforts to promote Chinese brands have had some success in weaning Chinese consumers from an automatic preference for international brands.  This can be seen in the growing popular indignation of Chinese consumers toward foreign companies.  China’s aspiring and middle-class consumers increasingly declare that multinationals selling in China take market access for granted, cut corners on safety and quality, ignore Chinese laws, and dump their low-end products there.  A sentiment popularly held about Japanese companies, for instance, is that they sell their highest-quality products in European and American markets, their second-best domestically, and their lowest-grade in developing markets such as China.  One woman I interviewed, for instance, insisted that Japan sends China mobile phones that couldn’t make it in Japan.

      他们当然需要本土化，但是也要继续发挥自己的长处，特别是在公平性、安全性和科技尖端性等方面。但西方或日本的产品和这些优势之间并没有永恒不变的联系。实际上，我认为政府对中国品牌的卖力宣传已经成功减弱了中国消费者对国际品牌的本能青睐。这点从中国消费者对外国公司的抱怨升级可以略窥一二。有想法的消费者和一些中层消费者日渐认为跨国公司自认为在中国占领市场理所当然，他们在安全性和公平性缺斤少两，无视中国法律，在中国市场倾销他们的低端产品。比如，中国消费者对日本公司的普遍看法是，日本将最好的产品销往欧洲和美国，将次优的产品投放本国市场，而让最劣的产品充斥中国等发展中市场。我曾采访过一位中国女性，她坚持日本将他们在本国根本不可能生产的手机销往中国。

    It’s worth noting that the reverse occurs, too.  Chinese brands want both to appear modern/western/cosmopolitan and Chinese/traditional/patriotic, depending on circumstances.  Chinese companies want to convince consumers they are buying the best but also that they are doing the right thing for China.  This is especially the case during upsurges in patriotic sentiment, say, surrounding the Olympics or following a perceived international insult.  Perhaps the best strategy is to keep an eye on Chinese competitors and to triangulate accordingly.

       相反情况若发生也没有什么价值。中国品牌既追求现代/西方/时尚的形象，也追求中式/传统/爱国的形象，一切视环境而定。中国公司想要说服消费者，他们购买了最佳的产品，并且这种购买对中国有好处。这点在爱国情绪上涨期间特别明显，比如奥运会期间，或者在经受某次国际侮辱之后。也许最好的策略是密切关注中国的竞争者,并作出适当权衡。