投机风席卷中药市场 Chinese speculators bet on fungus

投机风席卷中药市场Chinese speculators bet on fungus
英国《金融时报》杰夫•代尔 北京报道
If people around the world are hoarding gold coins as protection against a possible surge in inflation, some in China are betting on caterpillar fungus.
如果说全球各地的人都在囤积金币，以抵御可能出现的通胀飙升，中国却有不少人在押注冬虫夏草。
The parasite found mainly on the Tibetan plateau has been used for centuries in parts of China to fight fatigue and as an aphrodisiac – one of its nicknames is “Himalayan Viagra”.
这种寄生物主要产自青藏高原，数百年来，中国部分地区一直用它来抗疲劳和壮阳——冬虫夏草的诨名之一就是“喜马拉雅伟哥”。
It is also part of one of the latest speculative crazes to hit China’s booming economy – medicinal herbs. Prices are now so high that a Chinese consumer could buy almost two grammes of gold for the cost of one gramme of some types of caterpillar fungus.
中药材见证了疾速发展的中国经济中最新袭来的一股投机热，其中就有冬虫夏草。目前，冬虫夏草价格飙升，某些种类的价格几乎是黄金的两倍。
According to a report this week by the Association of Traditional Chinese Medicine, more than a quarter of the herbs used in Chinese medicine have increased in price by between 50 per cent and 100 per cent over the past year. For a small group of herbs, the increase has been more than 300 per cent.
中国中药协会上周发布的一份报告显示，过去一年里，中药中采用的草本植物，逾四分之一的价格上涨了50%至100%。少数药草的价格涨幅在300%以上。
Feng Shihong, a researcher at the Association of Traditional Chinese Medicine, says: “There has definitely been speculation in the herbs market.
该协会研究员Feng Shihong表示：“中药材市场绝对有人在投机。”
“But prices have been undervalued for a long time, which is also why they have increased.”
“但（中药材）价格长期以来一直被低估，也是它们价格上涨的原因之一。”
The speculative boom in medicinal herbs is one of the backdrops to the recent surge in inflation in China, which rose to 4.4 per cent in October. Fears that the government would announce the second rise in interest rates in a month, to contain inflationary pressures, prompted shares in mainland China to drop 5.2 per cent on Friday.
中药材行业的投机热能部分解释最近中国的通胀飙升——中国10月份消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨4.4%。由于人们担心政府会在1个月内宣布第二次加息，以抑制通胀压力，上周五上证指数收盘暴跌5.2%。
Chinese officials have this week angrily criticised the US Federal Reserve’s plans to inject a further $600bn into the US economy, which they say will help create bubbles in developing countries.
上周，中国官员愤怒地指责美联储(Fed)向美国经济再注入6000亿美元的计划，表示这将刺激发展中国家产生泡沫。
Plenty of critics at home, however, fear that loose domestic monetary policy is stimulating inflation. Chinese money supply expanded at nearly twice the rate of nominal GDP growth last year and the amount of new bank loans this year is likely to exceed the already generous target set by the government.
但中国国内许多批评人士担心，中国宽松的货币政策正在刺激通胀。去年，中国货币供应量增幅几乎是名义国内生产总值(GDP)增长的两倍，而今年的新增银行贷款总额则很有可能超过政府制定的本已宽松的目标。
There is also considerable popular mistrust of headline inflation figures, which was fuelled this week when a Chinese think-tank published a report claiming the official consumer price inflation data understated the real rate of inflation by seven per cent over the past five years because it did not properly capture rising costs for property and services.
民众也普遍不相信官方通胀数据——上周，一家中国智库发布的一份报告称，官方CPI数据将过去5年的实际通胀率低估了7%，因为这些数据并未恰当地反映出房价和服务成本的上涨。
Yu Yang, a salesman at Tongrentang, Beijing’s most famous medicinal herb shop, who has watched some of his ginseng varieties almost double this year, says “If inflation keeps rising like this I will not be able to survive.
北京最著名的中药房——同仁堂(Tongrentang)的一名销售员于洋表示，“物价再这样涨下去，我就活不下去了。”他眼看着自己卖的部分品种人参的价格今年涨了近一倍。
“My salary is not keeping up with inflation.”
“我的工资根本赶不上涨价。”
In particular, economists say China is vulnerable to bouts of speculation in asset markets because incomes are rising quickly, real interest rates on bank deposits are negative and capital controls make it hard to take money out of the country.
此外，经济学家表示，中国很容易受到资产市场投机热的冲击，因为收入在迅速上涨，银行存款的实际利率为负，而资本管制使人很难把资金转出国外。
House prices soared in the early months of the year in many cities before the government introduced a swath of measures to limit speculation. Chinese art has been recording record prices, as have other traditional objects such as jade.
今年头几个月，中国许多城市的房价都大幅飙升，政府随后出台了一系列措施，限制房地产投机。中国艺术品价格屡创新高，翡翠等其它传统收藏品价格也不断刷新纪录。
The boom in medicinal herbs is one of the more exotic reflections of the same phenomenon.
中药材市场的繁荣，则是这种现象较为特殊的的一种表现。
The price of caterpillar fungus has been rising for a number of years as its popularity has soared, but Zheng Zhiwen, senior analyst at the Bozhou Herbs Trade Centre, the largest in the country, says the price has nearly doubled over the past year. Heterophylly root, a herb used to reduce fatigue and treat coughs, has gone up in value by 10 times in some cases, while honeysuckle – used in a popular tea – has gone up fourfold.
多年来，随着受欢迎程度的明显上升，冬虫夏草的价格一直持续上涨，但中国最大的中药材交易中心——亳州中药材交易中心的高级分析师郑智文表示，过去一年，这种药材的价格已上涨近一倍。用于缓解疲劳并治疗咳嗽的太子参，有些价格上涨了10倍，而用于泡茶的金银花，价格上涨了4倍。
Analysts say that bad weather, a recent earthquake and rising demand for Chinese medicine from the country’s growing middle-class are all contributing to the spike in prices of some herbs, but they also think that speculation is playing a role.
分析师表示，恶劣天气、不久前的一次地震，加之中国不断壮大的中产阶级对中药的需求渐增，都导致了一些药材价格的飙升，但他们还认为，投机也是刺激因素之一。
“There is a lot of spare money coming into the herbs market from the real estate market”, Mr Zheng says.
“有大量闲钱从房地产市场流入中药材市场，”郑智文表示。
Li Youhuan, an economist at the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, believes that surplus liquidity is to blame: “There is excess spare money in the economy, that is what is increasing the price of herbs”, he says.
广东社科院的经济学家黎友焕认为，流动性过剩是罪魁祸首之一。“经济中有过多的闲钱，正是它们在推高中药材的价格”，他如此说道。