老外分析的上证走势图

20080413_50079fa380cfe1d38a93ZmzzUtMlcg01.jpg
Chart 1 is a monthly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index in comparison with the Nikkei Index and the NASDAQ index. After the 1990 Nikkei Bubble and the 2000 NASDAQ Bubble, the Shanghai Index in 2007 formed another biggest stock market bubble in recent history. Both the Nikkei Index and the NASDAQ Index had more than 75% retracement from their bubble highs, and both indexes are still far below their all-time highs after the bubbles burst so many years. A tipycal landing e for this kind of high flyers is in a range of about 70% retracement (plus/minus 15%). So far the Shanghai Index has had just 46% retracement from its spike high of October 2007. There is still more downside risk ahead of this index.
图一：上证指数月K线图与日经指数和纳斯达克指数的对比图。继1990年日经指数泡沫与2000年纳斯达克泡沫之后，上证指数在2007年形成了近期历史上另一个巨大的股市泡沫。日经与纳指均出现了自泡沫顶峰水平75%的回落，并且两个指数在其泡沫破灭这么多年之后，至今仍远远低于其历史高点。对于这样的泡沫，一个典型的指数着陆区间是自高点回落70%正负15%。迄今为止，上证指数仅从其2007年10月的高点下跌了46%，（因此）该指数仍存在不小的向下调整风险。
20080413_0728acbfe13df7532525GWhFzwlfa40z.jpg
Chart 2 is a weekly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. The Chinese stock market has entered in a major bear market with a growing risk of worldwide stagflation. The long-term picture is bearish as long as it moves below the downtrend line. It may bounce off the recent low to retest the warning line.
图二上证指数周K线图，随着世界范围内经济滞涨风险的上升，中国股票市场可能进入一个主要的熊市周期。只要指数运行于下行趋势线的下方，市场就是熊态的。指数可能会从近期低点反弹，以测试（对）压力线（的有效跌破）。
20080413_888e9a91e03cb2a3e76bqAaECL1lVoxf.jpg
Chart 3 is a daily chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. Here is a speculation of a Head-and-Shoulders pattern. Once the decline is suspended or exhausted by the support e, a counter-trend rally into the Right-Shoulder phase could be the next.
图三是上证日线图，存在走成头肩顶的可能，一旦跌势在前期支撑区域被遏制，指数可能在下阶段反弹形成右肩。
20080413_31f017b41e1d6b276143tPS1aVyYYsMW.jpg
Chart 4 is a daily chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. It is a speculation of a short-term bottom reversal suggested by the CCI indicator. It had a one-day surge up but had poor follow-through. We will see if the price is able to stay above the new trendline of the CCI indicator.
图四上证日线图，根据CCI指标，市场存在构筑短期底部的可能。指标出现了一个单日突破但持续性较差，我们将关注指数是否能否维持在新的（CCI上行）运行趋势之上。
20080413_eb748422cf374efd97af1ID3iX3rGAPo.jpg
Chart 5 is a daily chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. The 14-day Average True Range indicator is used here to measure and track the volatility. It indicats that the price movement during a day is about 4.9% in either direction. This is a very volatile level. One should be extremely careful to use any kind of leverages with this market, and be sure that your risk tolerance is able to handle this type of turbulent waves.
图五上证日线图，此处使用14日均线来衡量指数的日波动幅度。指标显示在涨跌任一方向上，指数的日波动幅度为4.9%。投资者在这样的市场中应谨慎使用杠杆，并确信在这样剧烈波动的市场中你具有足够的风险承受能力。