中国最大的敌人——大自然

　　香港—长久以来，中国政府一直执着地在及时扑灭社会上随时随地发生的动荡，但是现在它面对的是即使以四万亿(US$5,860亿) 经济刺激计划，或以用来审查互联网的“防火长城”，或其它强大力量也无法打败的敌人：大自然。

　　在恶名远扬的中国高危行业——煤矿业，现在举国上下正在庆祝被困在山西省北部长达八天之久的115名矿工赢得了奇迹般的救援时，一场百年不遇的严重干旱正持续影响着中国西南部地区。而当国有的中央电视台在鼓吹英雄救援行动并进行大幅宣传的时候，负责抗旱救灾的领导在上周则否认有村庄被遗弃以及大量灾区难民外逃的报道。

　　“我认为这里没有难民，”国家防洪抗旱救援指挥部的秘书长刘宁说。[相关阅读：京华时报：水利部驳水电站开发致大旱说法否认灾民外逃]

　　但是[相关]报道仍然在继续，如果预期下个月到来的雨季不能如期而至的话，局面将有可能更加恶化。在广西、贵州、云南、四川、以及广大的重庆市区，至少有2,200万人和740万公顷的农田受到干旱的影响。另外，刘宁，他也是水利部副部长，承认有三个北部省份山西、河北、甘肃也同样在遭受干旱。这意味着数百万农民的生活正处在危机之中，饮用水也正逐渐成为一种稀缺的商品。

　　为应对灾害，中央政府已经动用国库并动员解放军来救援，到目前为止，已经下发了1.55亿元人民币并派遣26万军队负责运水和帮助当地挖井。另外，如果旱灾在下个月还会持续的话，一项搬迁安置计划也将启动。

　　但是愤怒的村民还是觉得政府所做的屈指可数，而且为时已晚。大自然也许是让他们遭遇不幸的起因，但是政府不堪一击的防灾计划则让局面更加恶化。

　　在旱灾以前，一半以上的中国人没有干净的水，这造成每年近两亿例非常规疾病的发生，和六万名儿童的早夭。中国拥有世界22%的人口，但仅有7%的淡水资源——而且大多数的淡水资源在过去30年飞速的经济发展中被污染了——应对这些的防灾计划却明显是被抛诸于脑后了。

　　尽管如此，中央政府仍以天价全力兴建诸如三峡工程（264亿美元）和南水北调工程（176亿美元）等水利工程，这类工程对于普通村民没有任何好处。实际上，水坝的大量修建阻止了水流向偏远地区的农田，使干旱状况更加恶化。

　　许多年来，非政府组织们（NGOs）一直指责中国政府修建的水坝减少了湄公河（在中国被称作澜沧江，它发源于青藏高原并流经云南省）的水量。现在，这条河——不仅是中国的该河流经地区人民的生命线，而且也是数千万居住在该河下游的国家，如柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸、泰国和越南人民的生命线——它现在处在20年来的最低水位，水路货物的运输也被迫中断。

　　为了强调这一状态的紧急性，湄公河委员会（Mekong RiverCommission）的成员周一在泰国举行了为期四天的峰会。这是该委员会成立15年来首次举办此类峰会。中国还没有加入这个组织，它以观察员的身份出席了此次会议。中国外交部副部长宋涛利用此次会议再次否认中国应该对湄公河的水量减少负责。

　　正当关于中国修水坝是否真的“劫持”了湄公河的争论还在持续之时，中国那些伟大的水利工程则似乎并未能缓解那些受到干旱影响的地区。中国花费数千亿元人民币用于各类大型工程的建设，水库失修却普遍存在，对农村地区的水利设施和灌溉系统也投资不足。

　　伴随着中国经济的繁荣发展，中国城市正在向着富裕集体冲刺，但是仍然有过半人口居住在农村地区。中国西南地区至少有2,200万人要苦苦寻找一杯饮用水，更有甚者，数百万的北方人正忍受着旱灾的煎熬。他们所承受的苦难，相比于一小群经常被禁止外出或囚禁的政治改革者和人权活动人士来说，是对社会稳定的更大威胁。

　　连续三十年平均每年9.9%的惊人的经济增长速度让中国政府有能力主办2008 年夏季奥运会和（下个月将在上海开始的）世博会，同时，还可以兴修巨大的水坝、遍布全国的高速铁路和高速公路网络。但是现在，中国的领导们显然无法为维护水库和修建灌溉系统来帮助贫穷的农村居民而调拨资金。

　　其实，中国的西南地区有丰富的水资源。在云南，平均每人拥有的水资源多达10,000立方米，4倍于全国的平均水平。不幸的是，由于有丰富的水资源，水利设施的基础建设就被忽略了。仅靠挥舞着铲子的人民解放军战士看来不足以弥补这一缺憾。

　　根据世界银行的数据显示，中国65%的水资源被用在农业上，但是实际上，因为失误或基础水利设施的匮乏，只有不到一半的水能真正用于灌溉庄稼上。同时，由于整个国家缺少循环使用水资源的手段，约25%的工业用水被未经处理就被排入到江河之中。而在发达国 家，85%的工业用水会被循环利用。

　　来自水利部的数据显示：过半数的中国农田没有接入灌溉系统，期望丰收只能祈求老天爷的恩赐。对那些确实接入了灌溉系统的的农民来说，大量的水在浇灌庄稼之前就已经被浪费掉了。

　　中国水库的情况也相当不妙。截止到2007年，中国一共修建了87,000座水库，43%的水库破损失修。这些水库的情况多是如此：在雨水少的时候干涸，在洪水到来的时候则因蓄水量到达顶峰而没顶。

　　对于中国7.57亿的中国农村人口中的大多数来说，当面对极端的缺水和洪涝的时候，他们只能靠自己。现在，如果你愿意相信政府官员正在极力否认的国内媒体的报道，因为百年不遇的旱灾的降临，村民们正离乡背井。

英文原文：

China faces its biggest foe £¨atimes.com,April 8, 2010£©
By KentEwing

HONG KONG - The Chinese leadership, long obsessed with snuffing outsocial unrest whenever and wherever it occurs, has encountered a foethat cannot be defeated by its four trillion yuan (US$586 billion)economic stimulus package, its Great Firewall of Internet censorship oreven brute force: Mother Nature.

As the nation celebrates the miraculous rescue of 115 miners trappedfor eight days in one of the country's notoriously dangerous coal minesin northern Shanxi province, the worst drought in a century continues toseize China's southwest. While state-owned China Central Televisiontrumpeted the heroic rescue effort and provided blanket coverage, thehead of drought relief in China last week found himself denying mediareports of abandoned villages and an exodus of refugees from strickenareas.

"I don't think there are any refugees," said Liu Ning, secretarygeneral of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

But the reports continue, and things could get a lot worse if thehoped-for rainy season does not arrive next month. At least 22 millionpeople and 7.4 million hectares of farmland are affected by the droughtin the provinces of Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and Sichuan and in thesprawling municipality of Chongqing. Moreover, Liu, who is also viceminister of water resources, has admitted that three northern provinces -Shanxi, Hebei and Gansu - have also been hit by drought, as has theautonomous region of Ningxia. That means the livelihoods of millionsmore farmers are at risk, and that drinking water is becoming anincreasingly precious commodity.

As in past disasters, the central government has responded to thecrisis by opening its coffers and mobilizing the People's LiberationArmy, so far spending 155 million yuan to combat the drought anddispatching 260,000 troops to deliver water and to help dig wells. Inaddition, a relocation plan is in the works if the drought continuesthrough next month.

Still, angry villagers are likely to regard such measures as toolittle, too late. Mother Nature may be the cause of their misery, but awoeful lack of government planning seems to have exacerbated it.

Even before the drought, more than half of China's 1.3 billion peopledid not have access to clean water, causing nearly 200 millionunnecessary illnesses annually and 60,000 premature deaths. AlthoughChina has 22% of the world's population and only 7% of its fresh water -much of that polluted during the past 30 years of breakneck economicgrowth - planning for disasters like this was apparently kept on theback burner.

However, the central government has gone full speed ahead withlavishly expensive water projects such as Three Gorges Dam (US$26.4billion) and the South-North Water Diversion Project (US$17.6 billion)that have brought little benefit to average villagers. Indeed, China'sexcessive dam-building is likely making the drought worse for many ofthem, since it prevents water from reaching their remote farmland.

For years, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have blamed Chinesedams for shrinking the Mekong River, known in China as the LancangRiver, which originates in the Tibetan Plateau and runs through Yunnan.Now the river - a lifeline not just for people living in those parts ofChina but also for the tens of millions living downriver in the nationsof Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam - is at its lowestlevel in two decades, disrupting cargo traffic.

Underscoring their alarm, members of the Mekong River Commissioncompleted a four-day summit in Thailand on Monday; it was the first suchmeeting in the commission's 15-year history. China, which has notjoined the body, was present as an observer. Chinese Vice ForeignMinister Song Tao used the occasion to deny once again that his countrywas responsible for shrinking the Mekong.

While the debate continues over whether China's dam-building haseffectively "hijacked" the Mekong River, China's grandiose waterprojects seem to have not helped those worst affected by the drought.Hundreds of billions of yuan were spent on the mega-projects asreservoirs fell into disrepair and there was inadequate investment inirrigation systems and water utilities in rural areas.

Despite the mass dash to the riches of the cities that hasaccompanied China's economic boom, more than half of the nation'spopulation continues to live in rural areas. At least 22 million in thesouthwest are struggling to find a cup of drinking water. Millions moremay be suffering in the north. Their plight seems a bigger threat tosocial stability than the relatively small band of political reformersand human-rights activists who are routinely rounded up and tossed injail.

Three decades of economic growth averaging an astounding 9.9%annually has allowed the Chinese government to host the Summer OlympicGames in 2008 and the World Expo (starting next month in Shanghai) whilealso building enormous hydroelectric dams, a national high-speedexpress rail line and highways that span the vast nation. However, theleadership apparently could not find the funds to shore up reservoirsand build irrigation systems for its rural poor.

Southwestern China is, in fact, relatively rich in water resources.In Yunnan, there are more than 10,000 cubic meters of water per person,four times the national average. Unfortunately, however, it appears thatbecause the region has a good water supply, investment in waterinfrastructure has been neglected. Shovel-wielding PLA soldiers areunlikely to make up for the apparent neglect.

According to the World Bank, 65% of China's water goes toagriculture, but less than half of that actually reaches crops becauseof faulty or non-existent infrastructure. Meanwhile, the lack ofrecycling in the country means that nearly all of the 25% of the watersupply allotted to industry is dumped untreated into China's rivers. Inthe developed world, 85% of that water would be reused.

Figures from the Ministry of Water Resources show that more than halfof China's farmland is without access to irrigation systems and thusdependent on the vicissitudes of the weather for a decent harvest. Forfarmers who do have access to irrigation, most of that water is wastedbefore it reaches their crops.

The picture for China's reservoirs is equally bleak. Of the 87,000that had been built by 2007, 43% were in disrepair. In many cases, thismeans they are so heavily silted that they dry up when the rains ceaseand flood during summer when they reach their peak.

For the most part, then, China's rural population of 757 million hasbeen left to their own devices in times of acute water shortages as wellas floods. Now, if you believe mainland media reports strenuouslydenied by government officials, they are abandoning their villages asthe worst drought in 100 years bears down on them.

Kent Ewing is a Hong Kong-based teacher and writer. He can be reachedat kewing@hkis.edu.hk.

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